tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post2400841115402390865..comments2023-09-06T03:57:44.608-07:00Comments on Marko's Take: Fasten Your Seat BeltsMarkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07028301085211245105noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-88651011322168406272010-08-25T15:55:54.513-07:002010-08-25T15:55:54.513-07:00@JLouis,
Thanks for your explanation. Just some f...@JLouis,<br /><br />Thanks for your explanation. Just some final comments….<br /><br />While HO may fail to predict a crash as the result of corrective actions from the herd, the fact that it gives investors warning and helps to prevent a crash is still a great thing. Any average investor who may lose their shirts in a crash should be happy with such a “red flag”.<br /><br />Regarding your work place example, if the parameter X directly affects the company’s net profit, it would be a great thing for ALL employees to optimize their work to maximize X, which in turns will maximize the net profit.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10014515015856383635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-19449041917603693342010-08-24T01:30:19.723-07:002010-08-24T01:30:19.723-07:00@ada,
The reason a measurement becomes ineffectiv...@ada,<br /><br />The reason a measurement becomes ineffective is due to each person will be locally optimizing for him-/herself.<br /><br />As an example, take a work place. If the management argues that they want to measure the effectivity by looking at parameter X and pay bonuses according to parameter X - then of course all sane employees will try to optimize their work to maximize X. But this in turn means that the measurement is of less value to the company: most people do well on X and thus it can't be used to discriminate who is really the good and bad workers.<br /><br />In general, the problem is that if people know about the HO, they will individually act to protect their assets and take precautions whenever they do something. When all of the herd acts like this the accuracy of the HO dwindles (accuracy is the probability that a confirmed HO triggers a crash).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02990737394952724516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-11534555118339996752010-08-23T01:20:34.400-07:002010-08-23T01:20:34.400-07:00Hi Marko
Thanks for the interesting article. It m...Hi Marko<br /><br />Thanks for the interesting article. It maybe obvious to you and some of the readers, but it’s not clear to me why a particular technical analysis would lose its usefulness when everyone knows about it. Is it because people will take certain corrective actions once they have learned about the result of the analysis, thus reverting the predicted outcome? Can we still use the analysis as a health indicator of the market?<br /><br />By the way, it seems like a Greek tragedy for the Hindenburg Omen to lose its purpose in life the very moment it has served for everyone… I hope it’s still useful somehow…Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10014515015856383635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-63638114389353021962010-08-22T10:21:40.256-07:002010-08-22T10:21:40.256-07:00Hi Anons:
There has been some question as to the ...Hi Anons:<br /><br />There has been some question as to the confirmation of the HO. However, as of Friday's trading, yes, the Omen was absolutely confirmed.<br /><br />MarkoMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07028301085211245105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-21579020680885495202010-08-22T10:08:21.714-07:002010-08-22T10:08:21.714-07:00Are you saying that on Friday the 20th, HO confirm...Are you saying that on Friday the 20th, HO confirmed its early Aug manifestation, as per the 30 time requirement?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-41508454467578621012010-08-22T09:53:06.933-07:002010-08-22T09:53:06.933-07:00Hi Marko, are you saying that the HO has manifeste...Hi Marko, are you saying that the HO has manifested its confirmation within the 30 day time frame required from the early August manifestation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-28842727645768439822010-08-21T09:13:13.090-07:002010-08-21T09:13:13.090-07:00RD:
Being a perma-bull is one way ticket to finan...RD:<br /><br />Being a perma-bull is one way ticket to financial armageddon. As I said, it's a guess.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07028301085211245105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-76707260858830947272010-08-21T08:48:51.213-07:002010-08-21T08:48:51.213-07:00Marko,
gold to a $1000, that would be a drop of ov...Marko,<br />gold to a $1000, that would be a drop of over $230 .I guess anything can happen, but that sure seems excessive. When do you see this happening , all the economic conditions seem to be in place for god/silver to go much higher .Both gold/silver held up over the summer, usually their weak season .Now we are approaching golds good season ,where we usually see a spike in the price. You used to have a favorable view of gold, just wondering what changed your mind, you now sound like that Nadler guy from kitco -who has been negative on gold since it was at $250.rdisraelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-15633393959337874752010-08-21T06:10:18.710-07:002010-08-21T06:10:18.710-07:00Hey RD!
This is purely a guess, but I'm think...Hey RD!<br /><br />This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking $1000.<br /><br />The HUI, on the other hand could go to 250...<br /><br />MarkoMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07028301085211245105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8822606000441641347.post-1208933724591065572010-08-20T11:33:45.115-07:002010-08-20T11:33:45.115-07:00Marko,
How low do you see gold going ? next week i...Marko,<br />How low do you see gold going ? next week is expiration for gold/silver and the cartel always takes the price down without exception .this time gold might surprise us and not take much of a hit ,because the bullion banks suppression scheme is coming unglued do to the lack of physical gold out there.<br />Even today with the dollar up over .50 , markets down gold is only down a few bucks. In the past with expiration's coming up and the dollar up big gold would of been killed.At least to me things are changing in the gold market, and the cartel's days are getting numbered.rdisraelnoreply@blogger.com