Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Euro-Zone Sovereign Debt Continues To Stumble

Moody's, that venerable credit rating agency, just acknowledged what the entire financial universe has known for months:  Greece is not an investment grade credit!  Really?  Even Standard & Poors figured that out nearly two months ago.

In making the 4-step downgrade to Ba1 from A3, Moody’s cited risks to economic growth from the austerity measures tied to a €110 billion ($134.5 billion) aid package from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Obviously, the Moody's analysts must be regular readers of Marko's Take.

Greece has cut spending, raised taxes and trimmed public-sector wages and benefits to reduce the deficit, which ballooned to 13.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) last year, more than four times the EU maximum.  The government pledged to trim the shortfall to 8.1% of GDP this year and bring it back under the 3% EU limit by 2014.

Spain's problems, which are far less severe than those of Greece, is struggling to raise financing for debt maturities of €16.2 billion by July.

Spain disclosed yesterday that the European financial crisis is taking a toll on the country's banks, with foreign banks refusing to lend to some, while Germany said the EU stands ready to help if Madrid needs a Greek-style rescue.

With the 4th largest economy in the EU, Spain is coping with 20% unemployment and an 11.2% budget deficit.  Spain has among the lowest sovereign debt ratios in the Euro-Zone, at less than 60% of GDP.

Despite growing investor concerns amid a tougher credit environment, Madrid was able to place €5.2 billion at its 12- and 18-month bill auctions, but investors demanded a big yield premium.

Spanish 10-year bond yields rose nearly a quarter of a point yesterday, to 4.67%, while financial sector shares also came under pressure, down nearly 1% as they underperformed the broader market.

The demands on Germany and France, the EU's most healthy countries, continued to exert political problems.

German chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition government may be close to collapse, stung by a string of disagreements and intense infighting over austerity cuts, policy reform and the departure of senior conservatives.  With elections coming up in the next few weeks, German voters appear inclined to make wholesale changes.

The bail-out package has also raised the ire of Merkel's French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy, who has accused the Germans of creating an atmosphere that will thwart growth in Europe at a time when it should be stimulated.  Relations between the two politicians are at an all-time low.

Ireland was also able to sell €1.5 billion of new debt, but at much higher yields than in previous auctions.  The average yield on the 2016 bond rose to 4.521% from 3.663% at the last comparable auction in April.  The 2018 bond had a yield of 5.088%, up from 4.55% last August.

The credit window is still open for European sovereign debtors but could slam shut at any time.  If, and when it does, the toll on the world financial system will be particulary acute as governments will be forced to make substantially greater cuts to bolster investor confidence.  Marko's Take?  Avoid these issuers and focus on the only winner in this entire financial crisis:  Gold.

Marko's Take

Some sites we really like and hope that you visit:  http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/, http://aegeancapital.com/,
http://marketviews.tv/, and, of course, our ever-so-informative and entertaining You Tube channel at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

The Next Euro-Zone Domino: Hungary

First, we had the "PIGS" (Portugual, Ireland, Greece and Spain).  Then, with the addition of Italy, the acronym for troubled European countries becames PIIGS.  Hold on a second.  Hungary has applied for membership to this very elite group.  Get ready for PHIIGS.  PHIIGS?

Fears escalated yesterday that Europe's debt problems were spreading beyond the core Euro-Zone after Hungarian officials warned for a second day that the country was at risk of a Greek-style fiscal meltdown.

A government spokesman for new prime minister, Viktor Orban, said on Friday that even default was possible given the economy’s problems.  This sent Hungary's currency, the Forint, tumbling and credit default swaps surging by more than 100 basis points to 425. 

The latest comments are likely to increase skepticism of the new administration among investors.  Markets initially welcomed the center-right party's election victory in April.  However, they have been unsettled by repeated government clashes with the central bank and calls for foreign-currency loans to be converted into Forints.

Hungary's debt last year was 78% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the highest among the European Union's newest members.  But it remains very close to the 74% European Union (EU) average, and well below Greece's 115%.

Budapest has yet to draw down all of a €20 billion support package with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU in October, 2008.  The previous Socialist-backed government last year cut the deficit to 4% of GDP and stopped drawing on the credit line when market conditions improved.

Hungary’s cabinet met for a third day on Monday to discuss a range of fiscal measures designed to trim an estimated 1-1.5%  of GDP.  The government promised to announce its action plan today at the latest.

European problems don't stop there.  Let's not forget Romania.  Analysts have talked down the relevance of Hungary’s problems to others in the region, but neighboring Romania, a fellow recipient of a €20 billion credit line from the IMF and the EU, is suffering from its own set of fiscal problems.

Prime Minister Emil Boc has presented a bill in parliament that would cut public sector wages by 25% and pensions and unemployment benefits by 15%.

The austerity measures are among the most severe in the EU and have unleashed a maelstrom of protest in one of the bloc’s poorest members.  The package will face a vote of confidence next week that could bring down the government, which holds a razor-thin majority.

The government insists that the wage cuts are necessary if Romania is to meet its revised 6.8% deficit target agreed with the IMF and the EU.

Another day, another country in crisis.  Where will it end?  Not with more debt, not with bail-outs.  Only a return to a market-based system with incentives for people to work, rather than retire, will prove to be a permanent answer.  Sadly, all the civil servants, who have enjoyed a cushy ride, are loathe to make the changes necessary. 

Marko's Take

Want more background on the Euro-Zone's problems?  Use our search engine at the top-right of this site to obtain the latest information on everything financial and political.  And, if you have a more political bent, we will be expanding the You Tube videos.  You can access them by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv.  Bone up on topics such as The Federal Reserve, Peak Oil, Personal Income Taxes and Social Security.

Friday, March 26, 2010

When Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling: More Problems In The Euro-Zone

The Euro-Zone is falling apart country-by-country.  We've written about the panoply of problems facing Greece, Portugal and Great Britain (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/03/soverign-debt-redux-spill-over.html).

Ireland is also suffering and perhaps as badly as Greece (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/03/greek-crisis-threatening-global.html).

Ireland's deeper recession continued in the fourth quarter of 2009, as the economy shrunk another 2.3%,  as the result of devastating floods in the west of the country and a steep decline in building activity, following the crash in real estate.

This marked a reversal from the third quarter, which had shown a small increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.3% – giving rise to false optimism that Ireland had come out of recession.  Third quarter GDP was later revised to a negative 0.1%.

Minister of Finance, Brian Lenihan, said the year-on-year GDP decline of 7.1%  was “marginally better” than the estimate at the time of the budget in December of 7.5%. 

Economists, however, were more gloomy.  Alan McQuaid,  of Bloxham Stockbrokers, said “not only did Ireland not come out of recession in Q3, but it actually went into a deeper downturn in the final quarter”.

He calculated the cumulative decline in GDP since the end of 2007 was a “staggering” 12.7%, more than double the rate of the slowdown in the Euro-Zone as a whole!

Ireland is particularly beset with fall-out from the "boom-bust" in real estate.  Officials estimate the number of house completions in 2009 at 26,000, half the 52,000 built in 2008.  With an overhang supply of 120,000 houses for sale or rent, not including vacant homes, the rate of housebuilding in 2010 is expected to halve again.

At the height of the boom in 2007 there were 87,000 houses built in Ireland.  This compares with England and Wales, an area with 13 times the population, where house building is running at about 150,000 units a year.

Finance Minister Lenihan warned on Tuesday that the nation faced “the challenge of [its] life”, as he slapped higher taxes on the middle classes in an emergency budget aimed at tackling the spiralling economic crisis.

Mr. Lenihan outlined plans to set up a national asset management agency to take over an estimated €80 billion-€90 billion of bad loans extended by local domestic banks to developers and property companies that now look as if they will not be able to repay.

Forecasting an 8%  drop in Ireland’s GDP this year, Lenihan said he had to tackle soaring government borrowing and called on political opponents to “set aside narrow sectional interests” and support the tax increases, which are highly unpopular domestically.

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt.  Even after Tuesday’s measures, Mr Lenihan forecast government borrowing would be the equivalent of 10.75% of GDP – more than 3 times the limit on countries joining the Euro.

So, unhealthy countries continue to get less healthy.  Tragically, this vicious cycle is threatening the entire Euro-Zone and is making it impossible for the EU, as a whole, to provide emergency aid.  As a result, the situation threatens to be a contagion to the entire global financial community.

Marko's Take

If you're wondering about the legality of the Personal Income Tax, our latest video blog will be posted in the next several days covering this complex topic as we head into tax season.  To view our current YouTube videos, you can visit them here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Euro Now Leads Dollar In Race To Oblivion

On this side of the Atlantic, most thinking people understand that the Dollar is in "Deep Doo Doo", as George H. W. Bush might say.  Yet, the Euro is even worse!

Bringing the deep-rooted problems of the Euro to the surface have been the recent developments in the so-called "PIGS" countries and their imploding sovereign debt (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/sovereign-debt-crisis-threatens-to-take.html).

Germany has paid lip service to a potential bailout of Greece, but as of yet, no deal has been struck.  It appears that a wait-and-see policy has been adopted in the hopes that a combination of public assurances that Greece will NOT be allowed to default, combined with the Greek government's rigid adherence to its austerity program, will be enough to stabilize the markets.

The financial stresses becoming more evident in Europe are being felt by the common denominator of the European Union (EU), the shared currency known as the Euro.

The "Dollar Index", which is a basket of currencies that the greenback is compared to, is heavily weighted by the Euro - nearly 60%.  As a result, the Dollar and Euro tend to trade inversely.  Thus, the recent "strength" in the Dollar is nothing more than the mirror image of the severe weakness in the Euro.  The two currencies are BOTH in trouble, but the exchange rate is relative and at this time, the Euro is making a headlong sprint toward the "Finished" Line!

The Euro is currently worth $1.36 - down 10% since December 1, 2009.  During the same period, the Dollar Index has gained roughly 8%.  (In 2000, as the Euro was launched, it traded as low as about $.85 and then steadily climbed to its all-time high of $1.60 in July 2008).

Given the current trajectories of both the European and American economies, the final destruction of western currencies may be entering its terminal phase.  Only a return to an asset-backed status, preferably Gold, can stop what appears to be inevitable.  The only question is whether the Dollar or Euro reach "toilet paper" equivalency first!

History has shown just how dangerous even a single currency meltdown can become:  The Russian Ruble, not a major currency in the least, triggered the 1998 financial panic which brought down the large hedge fund known as "Long-Term Capital Management", putting world stock markets into free-fall and requiring emergency action by the Federal Reserve. 

Can you imagine what would happen if BOTH the Dollar AND Euro imploded?

If you either think I'm missing something or want to put your 2 cents in, while your 2 cents are still worth 2 cents, you know what to do.  TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Sovereign Debt Crisis Threatens To Take Down World Economy

First we had countries which fell under the acronym "BRIC" - Brazil, Russia, India and China.  These countries were believed to be the emerging world powerhouses.  Now, we have a new one:  "PIGS", or Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.  In the case of PIGS, the acronym is not in the least flattering.  Rather, it refers to a group of countries in such financial trouble that their sovereign debt is threatening to pull down the European Union (EU) and possibly the global economy altogether!

The sign that major stresses can be felt is being witnessed in both the bond markets and the countries'
"Credit Default Swaps" (CDS), which price the "insurance" against default.  Recently, Spain's and Italy's bonds have carried a CDS of 1.65%, Italy's have risen above 1.5%, while Greece's have expanded to a frightening 4%.  To put things in perspective, the United States, no longer considered a great credit, has an active CDS market priced at less than 0.5%!  Ireland, not officially a PIGS country, but guilty by association, has its CDS in the 1.5% range.

About six weeks ago, I wrote a piece on Soverien Debt (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/investing-in-soverign-debt-much-riskier.html.  Reading this might provide some excellent background for anyone unfamiliar with the issues.

According to a recent article in the Wall St. Journal, the global economic downturn and extensive government spending to fight it, have led to major fiscal problems in Europe, especially for less-dynamic economies like Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain.  Such countries took advantage of their membership in the 16-nation euro-bloc during the boom by borrowing at unusually low interest rates.  But now, investors are worried about how they will reduce yawning budget deficits that exceed 12% of their economic output in the case of Greece and Ireland.

European policy makers are trying to pressure countries like Greece into taking stronger action to fix their finances. 

The potential damage from any sovereign default in the EU will affect the entire region which shares a currency but NOT fiscal policies.  Now there is talk that Greece is looking to be "bailed out".  Wonder where I've heard the words "bailed" and  "out" before?

The sovereign debt isssue is another reason that 2010 is shaping up to be one nasty year!

Questions?  Disagree?  Agree?  TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The Haitian Situation

Last week, Haiti was rocked by a devastating earthquake registering 7.0 on the Richter scale.  The country was ill-prepared.  Already, 200 thousand Haitians are believed dead, while one-third of the island's population of 9 million has been affected.

The disarray resulting from the earthquake has been massive.  Looting, rioting and violence have broken out as food, medical and water supplies have been exhausted.  This has led to a comprehensive multi-country effort in order to both keep the peace, but also to allocate and distribute vital supplies.

France has accused the U.S. of playing a heavy-handed role.  So far, the U.S. has sent 10,000 troops and taken over air traffic control.  As a result, planes carrying medical supplies have been allegedly and needlessly delayed.

This accusation by France appears to be as erroneous as their claim to the international intellectual property rights of "French Fries" and "French Toast".  Not to mention, that by now they would have surrendered to someone!

Haiti has ONE landing strip in its capital:  Port-Au-Prince.  The airport, called the Touissant Louventure International Airport is hardly what it's name implies.  It wasn't designed to handle the barrage of inward coming traffic and was not designed to handle the large jets used by Russia. 

The United States has made modifications to the strip to permit the larger planes and taken heroic efforts to allow an unprecented amount of incoming traffic. 

On Sunday night alone, 50 planes with supplies were able to land.  By Monday morning that number had exceeded 800!

Every flight in is critical.  Yet each inbound flight believes that their flight is THE most important. Thus, there is a need to prioritize given the very limited facilities that exist.

Fortunately, the European Union (EU) has distanced itself from France's accusations.  In fact, the EU has expressed gratitude for the heroic efforts of the United States in not only modifying the sole landing strip, but in recognition of the skill required to accept the hundreds of planes attempting to take off and land.

As Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General, headed for Haiti to see for himself the extent of the worst humanitarian disaster that the world body has had to cope with in decades, concern grew over delays in the airlift to the capital’s airport, which is under US control.

Alain Joyandet, French co-operation minister, told reporters at the airport he had protested to Washington. He complained to the US ambassador about the US military’s management of the airport where he said a French medical aid flight had been turned away.

Marko's Take?  The U.S. deserves kudos.  Marko's 2nd Take?   Mr. Joyandet might wish to recall why his country continues to be known as "France" rather than referred to as "Germany".

Of course, if you disagree, you know what to do.  TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take