After 2 days of scaring the wits out of anyone, including me, I thought that I'd review some of the additional possible trigger events for a stock market collapse that do NOT include eclipses or full moons.
Not in any particular order, these are all potential dangers for the stock market meltdown that I've written about over the past couple of days.
1. Military conflict in the Middle East
Without re-iterating why this situation is so dangerous, you can read some of the latest developments here http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/06/showdown-with-iran-looms-closer.html.
2. Either a major default or a complete disintegration of the Euro-Zone.
For some recent information, try this piece on the countries' out-of-control budget deficits http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/05/euro-zone-budget-deficits-go-parabolic.html.
3. A key state, county, or city default.
For more information, you can read the lastest here http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/07/50-states-50-budget-nightmares.html.
4. Or, the inability of the United States, as a whole, to pay its debts.
For more information on this mess: http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/05/us-budget-deficit-continues-to-spiral.html.
5. A trade war with China.
Read about it here http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/06/us-sino-trade-frictions-intensify.html.
6. An inevitable and growing shortage of oil.
Yes, "Peak Oil" is not a myth. Don't believe me? Read this: http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/05/peak-oil-update.html.
7. Intensifying problems in our financial system, most notably, the banking sector. http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/05/banking-sector-problems-accelerate.html. Obama's most ill-advised new financial reform bill will only make things worse! http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/06/obamas-latest-folly-financial-reform.html.
8. The commercial real estate sector (not to mention residential).
You can read about that here http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/04/commercial-real-estate-losses-next-shoe.html.
If you've read this far, let me leave one more for you to ponder: The American Empire is on its last legs. This is a long one, but well worth reading to put everything above in historical context. http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/06/12-steps-of-empire.html.
Now a truism that a lot of folks hold onto, is the notion that it's darkest before the dawn. Trust me, we will soon know dark!
Marko's Take
The only argument I'd make with this is that I think the banks have long ago and far away reserved the hell out of their balance sheets. I also suspect bank earnings are down for a couple of additional reasons, but the key one is a continuation of over-reserving as we make our way through these big issues.
ReplyDeleteI like the new blog background!
ReplyDeleteDHH:
ReplyDeleteI still believe that HUGE balance sheet issues remain, even after all the TARP.
Mango: Thanks! Did you see the 3D aquarium at the bottom? I'm trying to make this look like a newspaper. Would like to do the travel section?
Marko