Monday, November 22, 2010

The Missile Crisis That Never Ended

The Presidency of John F. Kennedy, which lasted less than 3 years, was perhaps the most dramatic in history.  His election, which at the time, was the closest ever, was marred by allegations of ballot-stuffing from the Chicago political machine.  A key election issue was the so-called "Missile Gap" amid the paranoia that existed at the height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union.

A key figure in the entire episode with Cuba and the USSR, was none other than a 13 year old boy, Julio Antonio del Marmol.  Last week, we introduced Dr. Marmol and some of his intelligence operations in this piece:

Yes, it does sound far-fetched for a boy not old enough to shave to be an intelligence operative.  Send a boy in to do a man's job?  If you think about it, who better?  Who'd suspect a 13-year old?  Not Castro!  He gave young Julio, whom he considered a "pet", unfettered access to Cuba's military bases.

Del Marmol's uncle, who had direct contact to U.S. intelligence, recruited him to use his incredible access to gather highly sensitive information.  At first, young Julio was tested by being provided with a camera spy pen to take pictures at the military base.  This vintage spy equipment still exists, and can be reviewed here:  In case you're wondering, Del Marmol was NOT given a shoe phone.  That privilege was saved for Maxwell Smart.

The camera pens used by Del Marmol contained several pictures each and were passed on to his uncle who then, in turn, passed them on to U.S. intelligence.  Del Marmol's early work produced what he believes are the first photographs of nuclear weapons brought in from Soviet merchant ships for assembly in Cuba.

As these were reviewed by analysts at the Central Intelligence Agency for authenticity and found to be legitimate, Del Marmol was then shipped boxes of pens to then photograph the surrounding areas, landmarks, road signs, Soviet trucks and everything else needed to fully comprehend the unfolding military threat to the south.

As early as August 1962, the United States officially suspected the Soviets of building missile facilities in Cuba.  During that month, its intelligence services gathered information about sightings by ground observers of Russian-built MIG 21 fighters and light bombers.  U-2 spyplanes found surface-to-air missile sites at 8 different locations.

On Monday October 15, 1962, the CIA's National Photographic Intelligence Center reviewed the U-2 photographs and identified objects that they interpreted as medium range ballistic missiles. By Friday, October 19, frequent U-2 spy flights showed 4 operational sites.

History reports that an agreement was reached by which the USSR would remove and dismantle Cuban missiles in exchange for a pledge by the United States NOT to invade Cuba plus the removal of American nuclear weapons from Turkey.  At this point, Dr. Marmol's information varies dramatically from the history books.

According to Del Marmol, nukes were NEVER actually removed from Cuba.  In fact, over the last 5 decades, he contends that Cuba now has built an arsenal of several hundred intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and an atomic submarine fleet. 

He further contends that the United States has been well aware of Cuba's and the USSR's deception, but remains mum so as not to admit to the failings of its own intelligence and to prevent the unnecessary alarming of the population.

For public comsumption, Cuba in 2002 signed on to the United Nation's policy of non-nuclear proliferation and issued this press release, calling the United States, the sole nuclear power of the Americas.

So, while the United States and United Nations continue to wring their hands about the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, neither of which has the ability to reach the our shores, a silent and fully-armed enemy lies less than 100 miles away with the ability to wipe out our largest cities.

An ongoing standoff has remained in place for nearly 5 decades.  Cuba is safe from invasion and while Castro may be certifiably insane, he is NOT suicidal.  Instead, the export of Castro's revolution is done through client states in Central and South America.

The threat from Cuba is far greater than just the ability to inflict military damage.  Castro's forces are active in regime de-stabilizing activities in key "friendly" countries such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.  Venezuelan strong-man Hugo Chavez is already a Castro disciple.

How do we know that Del Marmol's information about ongoing Cuban military strength is true?  Admittedly, his information is circumstantial, but he points out that the United States has been the sole super military power for years and has left Cuba untouched while acting as policeman all over the world in places such as Bosnia, Sudan, Ethiopia and others despite Cuba's proximity to our shores.

According to Del Marmol, Cuba's plan is to export its revolution to the United States without firing a single bullet.  How are they doing this?  For one, they are sponsors of militant groups such as "The New Black Panthers".  They also have masked operatives who attend illegal immigration rallies in key border states Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California who intentionally incite violent riots.

It is believed that Cuba is the ringleader of "The Three Continental Union" comprised of entities in Africa, the Americas and Asia.

It's no secret that our way of life is in jeopardy from American-hating countries in the Middle East, the Taliban and North Korea, a patient and quite potent enemy lies barely a stone's throw away. 

Marko's Take

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The Titanic Syndrome

It sounds like something a trained psychiatrist would diagnose, but it is yet another arcane and statistical market quirk.  This indicator was created by a gentleman named Peter Eliades, who publishes a newsletter called Stockmarket Cycles (

Eliades has been in the business of technical analysis since 1972, when he began to appear on Los Angeles-based UHF channel 22 as a commentator.  Back then, a 14 year old real life Alex P. Keaton would watch him during school breaks from within the Beverly Hills High library.  Kind of explains why my social life wasn't exactly brimming in those days.

Eliades predicted that the horrible early 1970's bear market would bottom during the week of December 9-13, 1974 many, many months in advance.  It bottomed on December 9th.  Publication of Stockmarket Cycles began in July of 1975.

In 1985, the first year he was rated by the independent rating services, Mr. Eliades earned the Timer Digest’s "Timer of the Year" award and placed second in 1986 in a close race which wasn’t decided until the final trading day of the year.  In 1989, Mark Hulbert (Hulbert Financial Digest) named Mr. Eliades as the "Most Consistent Mutual fund Switcher" based on Eliades timing signals for the years 1985, 1986, 1987, and 1988.  From January 1985 when Hulbert first started rating Stockmarket Cycles, through August 1990, Stockmarket Cycles had the #1 market timing record in the country with a timing gain of 174.3% versus a comparable gain in the Wilshire 5000 Total Return Index of 119%.

In other words, the man is no Abbey Joseph Cohen.  Now, before we go on to Eliades' current outlook, it is important to note that he and "Marko's Take" do not exactly mesh at the current time.  MT says market meltdown imminent with a sub 8000 low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average by early 2011.

From the latest Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, November 16th:

According to Eliades, "we would say that there is a real chance for a short to intermediate-term decline over the next several weeks but because of significantly higher nominal four-year projections, those projections force us to continue to look for higher prices going into 2011."

While our penchant for tongue-in-cheek hubris suggests that we vote for us, last I checked "Marko's Take" has yet to win a single Timer's Award.  Clearly, a conspiracy.

Eliades goes on to describe the Titanic Syndrome:

"Our good friend, Shon Saleh, a great institutional broker at Smith Barney in Century City California, jogged our memory today by asking a question about 52-week highs and lows after a new high is registered in the market. The answer to the question is the Titanic Syndrome, a market indicator devised by Bill Ohama.  Bill recognized back in the 1970s and 80s that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high for the year or had rallied 400 points or more (remember this was back in the 70s and 80s when 400 points was a lot bigger percentage move than it would be today) and that new high was followed within seven trading days by a day which saw more 52-week lows than 52-week highs on the New York Stock Exchange, a Titanic Syndrome signal would be given suggesting a market top of some significance.  Well guess what? Today was the seventh trading day after the November 5 new high registered in the Dow and the official number of new highs versus new lows on the New York exchange was 20 new highs and 139 new lows. New lows swamped new highs. On the face of it, a Titanic Syndrome signal was generated." 

When employing these indicators which use historical data as a benchmark of their efficacy, it is important to take into account how the nature of markets has changed.  Of particular importance has been the enormous growth of bond funds, ETFs and other exotic securities which may affect how the ratios of new highs and new lows relative to issues traded is computed. 

Eliades does, in noting the presence of the Titanic Syndrome, expect a potential sharp correction possibly dead ahead.  However, he views it as a correction, while we're thinking MAJOR MARKET TOP.

Marko's Take

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Hindenburg Re-appears

A major mystery for me this summer has been the strange levitation of the stock market, despite an endless list of reasons for it to get crushed.  Not only does the market have to contend with a shrinking money supply, a failing financial system, crumbling European bailouts and an inept Federal Reserve, but it also seems that the entire galaxy is aligned against it.  For more on the Hindenburg Omen, click here:

By now, the market should have begun its catatrophic descent.  Why hasn't it?  My guess is that all the hot air coming out of politician's yaps, coupled with the aggressive market support employed by the Federal Reserve and Helicopter Ben, has temporarily put a delay on what I still contend is inevitable.  The best efforts of the Fed will not work.  Here's why:

Today's trading witnessed a very Hindenburg-like day.  According to Yahoo Finance, there were 136 new highs and 164 new lows among nearly 4,000 issues traded.  That would provide the initial trigger for the Hindenburg.  As noted in prior pieces, there are a myriad of filters, but honestly, one needs no filter other than a gas mask to see that the "House Of Cards", known as the U.S. Financial System is on the verge of collapse.

But that's not all.  Nearly every asset market has gotten incredibly and feverishly over-extended, including precious metals and mining stocks.  We have discussed other technical indicators which are also very  ominous,  and  those are discussed  here:, and

Add to that the rising inflation pressure showing up in prices at WalMart and other retail stores, plus in today's report on the Producer Price Index.  Creeping inflation will put a cap on the Fed's ability to perform it's levitation tricks or a full blown hyper-inflation episode will ensue even sooner.  It, too, is inevitable, once monetary velocity picks up.

So, what's an investor to do?  Go To Cash!  The only investments likely to survive this assault will be the very oversold U.S. Dollar and very short-term Treasuries.  Yeah, the returns suck, but even 0% is better than losing 20% or more in a fairly short period of time.

Unlike the meltdown of 2008, which, too, was forsaged by a series of Hindenburg Omens, this one will not be an exact repeat.  This time, Gold, Silver, Commodities and precious metals mining stocks ought to hold up much better.  A correction to their 200 Day Moving Averages would be the most likely scenario, as discussed in this recent "Marko's Take":

Better to wait for another entry point, well below current levels, than to sweat it out in a volatility spike down that may just give you a heart attack.  And, the bargains that will become available will be well worth waiting for. 

So, how long may stocks go?  Obviously, no one knows, but a Dow Jones Industrial Average of between 6,000 and 8,000 would seem to be a logical target occuring early in 2011. 

It's going to be a very, very cold winter for most investors.  Store lots of blankets!

Marko's Take

Sunday, November 7, 2010

The Educators Are The Ones Needing Education (Part 1)

We live in a world of very constrained and limited resources.  But imagine, if you got more resources, even adjusted for inflation year-after-year.  Your performance ought to improve, right?  Not if you are one of the fine public educators in this country.  The more you spend, the more your performance deteriorates.  Of course, your job is protected by a hostile teacher's union and tenure.  You can't be fired no matter how bad you are at what you do, yet you complain how you're so damn underpaid.

Perhaps the benchmark standard test for scholastic achievement is none other than the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT).  This exam was designed by educators to be objective and is used in college admissions to differentiate among qualified candidates.  It is also used to award scholarships.  For those unfamiliar with this test, you can learn more by clicking here:

Average national SAT scores by year, Verbal and Math are listed below while in paratheses are inflation-adjusted per capital spending on education according to the U.S. Department of Education

1972 530 509  ($4,489)  1986 509 500   ($7,007)  2000 505 514  ($8,923)

1973 523 506                 1987 507 501                   2001 506 514

1974 521 505                 1988 505 501                   2002 504 516

1975 512 498                 1989 504 502                    2003 507 519

1976 509 497                 1990 500 501  ($7,749)    2004 508 518

1977 507 496                 1991 499 500                    2005 508 520

1978 507 494                 1992 500 501                    2006 503 518 ($10,041)

1979 505 493                 1993 500 503                    2007 502 515
1980 502 492                 1994 499 504                    2008 502 515

1981 502 492                 1995 504 506     ($7,796)

1982 504 493  ($5,639)  1996 505 508

1983 503 494                 1997 505 511

1984 504 497                 1998 505 512

1985 509 500                 1999 505 511

As can be easily gleaned from the chart above, per capita spending even after adjustments for inflation has MORE THAN DOUBLED from 1972 to 2006.  At the same time Verbal scores have declined from 530 to 503 while Math has edged up from 509 to 518.

Average test scores are also directly correlated to household income.  The higher the average household income, the higher the average test scores.  So, while there has existed a debate as to the racially biased nature of the test, most of the racial differences are explained by income differences rather than genetics.

The trend toward deteriorating test scores is even true among the Advanced Placement Exams which, if passed, give high school students college credit.  The rate of test taking is at all-time high, while at full 41.5%
of tests taken result in a failing grade

So, we've identified the extraordinary failure of public education spending.  What's the solution?  It's known as school vouchers, which we'll explore in part 2 of this series.

Meanwhile, Marko's Take is here to save you each more than the $10K per capita you're being forced to spend.  We're still free and more informative than Encyclopedia Brittanica.

Marko's Take

Saturday, November 6, 2010

World War III Continues...Conducting War With Information

We've discussed a new approach to thinking about how modern warfare is conducted.  Instead of using traditional armaments such as fighters, nukes and submarines, war is now conducted through use of such diverse means as financial, economic, trade, cyberspace and terrorism

But that's hardly all.  It is now possible to use really high-tech approaches as triggering forces of nature such as earthquakes and weather to create damage to crops or structures or even generate tsunamis.  It is possible to use pyschological tactics, known as psy-ops, to instill debilitating emotions to your enemy.  If that doesn't do the trick, then how about inflicting massive environmental damage to your opponent? (

But, the use of information  is yet another technique for financing, as opposed to conducting, war.  Of course, excellent intelligence and reconnaissance is critical to execution of a battle plan.  But information has another use:  surreptiously financing a war, without disclosure to Congress or the American people.
Fortunately, for the first time, Marko's Take will reveal a bona-fide true story of how this medium was actually employed in some of the major foreign operations of the last half century.

We had the privilege of being provided with the opportunity of speaking with Dr. Julio Antonio del Marmol, PhD.  Dr. del Marmol has been an incredibly active member of the international intelligence community for nearly half a decade and tells stories that would make Jason Bourne look like a couch potato.  He has had no less than 56 separate attempts on his life, and obviously, survived each one.  He will be revealing each of these attempts and how he escaped, in an upcoming documentary called "One More Attempt". 

Beginning at age 13, del Marmol began trasmitting data about Castro's Cuba from within to the international intelligence community.  In 1971, his cover was blown, and he fled his home country to then be recruited for a new assignment: to cooperate with agents against Cuba.

His operations are even more secret than Animal House's "Double Secret Probation".  For del Marmol to have been able to conduct his operations, naturally, required very large sums of money.  The environment in that time frame was extremely unconducive to any official monetary support.  Vietnam was a growingly  unpopular boondoggle and the flower generation was making known its message of love and peace. Supporting covert operations would be about as popular as Herman Munster at a House of Mirrors.

So, the entities working with del Marmol began to provide him with the ultimate in insider information:  They gave him advance notice of expected increases in prices of certain assets and other tips on important events which had extreme value to an investor or businessman.  We're not talking about the an advance copy of the crop reports as in "Trading Places", either.

In 1971, as del Marmol began to build his non-conventional army, he was provided with the strong suggestion that the price of oil was going up.  About 6 months later, the Arab Oil Embargo happened, generating tens of millions of dollars.  Subsequently, he was given other "forecasts" such as the breakup of the Bell monopoly which he used to begin a very successful and lucrative business in payphones.

Of course, today, he would have Marko's Take to accurately forecast the future, but the good doctor is now retired and living what looks to be a very productive life. 

Del Marmol's role was to provide what he refers to as his "services".  Those spanned the gamut, from real spy stuff such as facillitating a regime change.  Thankfully, it was not his idea to eliminate Castro with the exploding cigar, but we anxiously await hearing about that one.  His other activities included setting up a sting by purchasing large amounts of cocaine from Columbian drug lords in order to expose the connection with Cuba.  He also used money, often obtained from other sources, for many benign purposes such as building roads, schools, hospitals, airfields and bridges to instill goodwill among native populations that were suffering from oppression.  They also provided badly needed food and medicine.

Del Marmol's forces were involved in some very major operations including Panama, Grenada, Congo and Ethiopia.  They were peripherally involved in supporting insurgents in Afghanistan during the Russian occupation.  They had some, but limited, involvement in Europe.  The end game, in each case was regime change or preservation of a friendly regime under seige.  The various administrations in power feared the "domino effect", especially in South and Central America.  It was particularly feared that Mexico would become a Cuban satellite and a very hostile enemy with whom we'd would share a very long border.

As del Marmol's scale of operations grew, information alone was not enough to generate sufficient funds.  Each tip could only produce so much.  Market limitations capped the amount of profit each tidbit could earn.  It was important to not score a gain so huge that it attracted attention and perhaps some sort of inquiry by regulators, the IRS or the media.

So, in 1988, it was agreed to by folks at the very top that del Marmol should be able to actually print genuine U.S. Currency.  Yes, del Marmol was given a printing press, in effect creating a personal Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury.  He had dies, plates, magnetic ink and the special paper used to print currency.  Del Marmol's plates included Twenties, Fifties and Hundreds.

In order to make the currency genuine and indistinguishable from the ones produced at the mint, del Marmol engaged in some trial runs, using standard copier paper.  With the benefit of multiple attempts, they were able to achieve a pretty accurate reproduction.

The "beta" bills were voluminous and required a virtual 24-7 destruction process.  Unfortunately, not all were elinimated.  Del Marmol then made a grave mistake.  He gave an employee permission to use some phony currency, but warned against using more than a single $100 bill at a time.  If the counterfeits were then discovered, the bearer could always claim that it was found or received in change somewhere.  Del Marmol's employee, apparently no threat to Albert Einstein, decided to go shopping at Nordstrom's with a fistfull of monopoly money.

A blue collar worker with $20,000 in walking CASH?  Needless to say, it drew the attention of the Secret Service and del Marmol was arrested for counterfeiting.  Without much detail, the seizure was reported in the Los Angeles Times

At the time it was broken, the story was so significant that it interrupted the 1988 Olympics.  Del Marmol was released by executive order after 5 months.  Reportedly, the case has been completely wiped clean from all records and remains under Federal Seal.  Took a few buckets of white out and some instuction from Russian historians to get the job done.

Cover blown, del Marmol has since retired.  Somehow, despite more cardiac moments than the bomb squad, del Marmol is still in incredible condition, looking much younger and fit that his 63 years.  He landed in the United States at age 23 knowing little English.  Now he speaks with nary an accent.  Not once did he have to 'splain anything to me!

Del Marmol is coming forth to advise the American people and the world on the, as of yet, undisclosed truth.  Still a patriot with Libertarian leanings, he is using information that he possesses as his OWN form of currency and financing to get the message out, therby assisting the creation of a more transaparent government. 

We will begin a series of pieces chronicling del Marmol's amazing life and activities.  For the first time, answers to many questions historians have had will be answered in this blog.  Wanna know about "Bay of Pigs", the "Cuban Missile Crisis", the Kennedy Assassination, Watergate or even 9-11?  Guess what?  You're in luck!  Marko's Take is on the job, doing it what we set out to do.  Bring you the unvarnished truth, bypassing our "watchdogs" (cough, cough) in the lamestream media.

Marko's Take