Tuesday, August 24, 2010

I See The Bad Moon Arisin'

Last night was a full moon.  A BAD moon.  With the recent solar eclipse window still open, coupled with the full moon, the anticipated crash, should it happen, ought to take place imminently.  A review of the significance of astro-harmonics can be reviewed by clicking here:  http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/07/hindenburg-omen-confirmed-or-was-it.html.

Now that earnings season has encouraged investors, it's time for the economic reality to splash cold water in the financial markets' faces.  The news is exceptionally poor.

The Richmond branch of the Federal Reserve’s measure of manufacturing activity for the  mid-Atlantic region plunged by about 30% . The fall was less than economists were predicting, but the decline strongly suggests tha one of the US’s only area of strength has an empty gas tank.

The economy’s weakest sector, housing, got yet more bad news.  Sales of existing homes fell 27.2%  in July, the steepest monthly drop in 15 years and past consensus expectations of a 12%  decline.

The Richmond Fed’s index came in at 11, versus 16 the previous month.  Last week, the Philadelphia branch registered a disappointing index of factory activity that sent markets reeling, as it suggests a potential dip in the August reading of the broader Institute of Supply Management’s index.  The Chicago Fed’s index is due next week.

And this is just the beginning.  In today's trading, it appears that we will have yet another Hindenburg Omen.  This makes at least 3, depending on whose definition of it one ascribes to.  What's a few New Highs and New Lows among friends, anyway?

The equally ominous head and shoulders pattern gives us at least an idea of what might be reasonable to expect here in terms of the next intermediate low.  A good rule of thumb is that once the neckline is broken, the downside target is equal to the decline that immediately preceeded it.

Thus, one could look to these levels for the market to take its next breather:  525 on the Russell 2000, 925 on the Standard & Poors 500, 1900 on the Nasdaq Composite and 8500 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  And, these levels, or some approximation thereof, should be reached BEFORE the actual crash occurs, if there is one.

The only safe places to hide capital are Utilities, Oil Companies with a high dividend, Gold (physical), the Dollar and ultra-safe Bonds.  For the aggressive, inverse ETFs such as FAZ and TWM ought to provide at least a good hedge, but also a very risky, but potentially very profitable trade.

I see the Bad Moon Arisin', I see trouble on the way....

Marko's Take


  1. Marko,

    with both gold/silver up big time the last few days ,do you still believe that gold is headed down to $1000,as you have said before.By the way I'm not a permabull as you called me before, but gold/silver have had a great run up the last three weeks or so.
    not sure i understand your reasoning on why gold will drop as you say.
    Just wondering if you have changed your predictions on gold at all .I'm not saying its going straight up, but the fundamental reasons why gold should go up seem to be in place and only improving over time

  2. RD:

    I continue to say that I'm only guessing about Gold and Silver. Honestly, they could go either way. If Gold closes above $1250, I'd be an aggressive buyer; if it closes below $1200, I'd be a seller.

    Long term, I still think $5000 or more is in the cards, just not yet.


  3. Marko,
    i respect your opinion, you say gold could go to $5000 eventually, but not yet.Don't you think the current economic conditions as they are now have never been more favorable.This is no longer a paper game,the physical market in London is going into a big time squeeze, they don't have the gold, that institutions, countries etc are demanding .
    If not now than when ?


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