While it's fun to speculate on the future course of very unpredictable world events, it's much less fun to review how one's past forecasts have turned out.
About a year ago, we did a special outlook on 2010 putting forth what we expected to see: http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/01/10-predictions-for-2010.html.
How'd we do? Well, it depends on how one grades oneself, but let's be brutal, shall we? After all, we've "Taken On" Goverment Sachs, Al Gore, Barney Frank, Barrack Obama, Warren Buffett and many, many more. We've also lit fuses under the collective behinds of virtually every major financial and political figure. Virtually no one came out unscathed.
So, what happens when "Marko's Take" takes on "Marko's Take"?
Predictions that were basically good include the ones about Republicans seizing control of both House and Senate. While they did NOT get the Senate, the prediction of the landslide was made on January 16th, 2010, well before the dissatisfaction with everything Obama took the Democrats for a political car-jacking.
We were skeptical that this country would see Obamacare. That, too was a good call. That god-awful piece of socialist legislation was not and NEVER will be enacted, although it did pass Congress.
Interest rates remained at very low levels all year. Dead on!
The Dollar is beginning a process of being relegated to second-tier status as China and Russia are now transacting in Gold and alternative currencies. Touchdown!
The stock market did indeed rise and sharply in 2010, but we can't do "chest bumps" about that one. Many times during the year, citing everything from astronomical phenomena to arcane and rare technical indicators, we became extremely bearish WAY too early. That crow soup we've been eating is starting to get old. Mea Culpa!
"Marko's Take" has maintained an ultimate target of $5000 per ounce for Gold and several hundred dollars per ounce for Silver. Our bullish stance was overall correct, even though I would have thought that $2000 for Gold would be the existing price level today. Nonetheless, this one goes to us.
Things that didn't happen: Civil disobedience from shortages of staples like food and water, a collapse in Commercial Real Estate led by strip malls, no "Windfall Profits Tax" on oil, the economic recovery did NOT sputter by the 2nd quarter and residential real-estate prices did NOT rise.
Overall grade? How does C+ sound? Not Summa Cum Laude performance, but certainly enough to be at the top of the Delta Tau Chi fraternity in Animal House. No need to be put on "Double-Secret Probation", yet!
Part 2 will present our new 2011 forecast, will 11 new surprising, shocking, scintillating predictions. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.