With the stock market closed on Friday, Wall Street waited for the Non-Farm payrolls report, also referred to as the "Jobs Report", with baited breath. Earlier in the week, optimism was running unchecked, as the hopelessly perma-bullish investor community began to predict that the number would be a blowout.
Then came the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) employment report, which showed that private sector jobs were LOST, not gained, and suddenly a more sober Wall St. began to ratchet down expectations.
Even with the projections running above a hoped-for gain of more than 200,000 jobs, down from the 300,000 anticipated a week earlier, the final number still stunk. Monthly job gains were a poor 162,000, of which 48,000, were made up of temporary census hires.
Therefore, as reported, March payrolls were up by a net of 114,000. The latest data also included upside revisions totaling 62,000 to prior January and February reporting. Part of the relatively stronger March report has been attributed to rebound effects from February’s blizzards. There we go with the weather again!
Logically, any weather-related impact would be non-recurring. But, who knows, maybe as the snow melts, we'll have floods to blame!
Dr. Williams, of the marvelous site ShadowStats (http://www.shadowstats.com/), believes that the government currently overestimates monthly payroll growth by at least 250,000, which suggests that more-accurate current reporting still would be very much in negative territory. On the unemployment-rate side, the broader measures increased and the headline number would have too, except for some rounding and census hiring.
The trend of reported monthly decline has continued to slow sharply against prior-year comparisons, indicating a bottoming process. The year-to-year decline in total non-farm payrolls narrowed to 1.7% (1.8% net of census effects) in March, versus an unrevised 2.5% decline in February and from a post-World War II record 5.0% decline in July 2009.
The July 2009 decline was the most extreme annual drop seen since the production shutdown at the end of World War II, which reflected an annual trough of 7.6% in September 1945. Otherwise, the current annual decline would be the worst since the Great Depression!
The Obama administration was jubilant over the tremendous news and couldn't wait to begin its ritualistic back-patting. Have they forgotten that 8.4 million jobs have been lost in the last 2 years? Oh, yes, that's all George Bush's and Ronald Reagan's fault!
Beneath the surface, however, a more dangerous trend and un-noticed by most economists, is the VERY ominous decline in liquidity as measured by the contraction in the broad money supply aggregates. According to Dr. Williams, "real (adjusted for inflation), broad systemic liquidity, as reflected in M3 (SGS Continuing Estimate), continues to shrink year-to-year. As of March, the series appears to be down by the largest percentage in modern reporting. The negative effects of this liquidity squeeze on the economy should become increasingly obvious in the next month or so, including subsequent employment data, ex-census."
Historically, sudden, sharp fall-offs in money supply growth have been closely followed by both stock market sell-offs and economic decline. In addition, this contraction bodes poorly for commodities, despite the recent strength.
Here's to hoping everyone has a Happy Easter with a booming PERSONAL money supply!
Marko's Take
Please visit us on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv. The very excellent Phoenix Film Group is now placing the final touches on our next episode on the legality of the Personal Income Tax.
Showing posts with label February Jobs Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February Jobs Report. Show all posts
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Great News!... More Jobs Lost!
The audacity of the Obama Administration to spin a systemic unemployment problem is nothing short of Orwellian. "Good news is good news". "Bad news is good news"! Is this the Audacity of Hope?
This morning, the closely watched jobs report came out. The Labor Department, which carried out its surveys at the same time that the snowstorms battered the East Coast, said in a report today that non-farm payrolls fell by 36,000 compared with a revised 26,000 drop in January.
While to most people, including all of us at Marko's Take, losing jobs AGAIN would seem like bad news.
But we don't live in Washington, D.C. where it's more important to "beat the spread" than to win.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting payrolls to fall by 75,000, mainly because of the severe weather. So, the loss of "only" 36,000 jobs was a WIN! The January figure was revised from an originally reported 20,000 decline.
While jobs were LOST, the unemployment rate went DOWN! The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a different household survey, remained at 9.7% last month. Economists had forecast the jobless rate would edge higher to 9.8%.
A major factor in the "great" jobs number was care of Uncle Sam. Employment fell in construction and information, while temporary help services added jobs. Total government employment fell by 18,000, but that is mostly due to a decline in state and local jobs. The FEDERAL work force grew by 7,000, helped by an influx of Census workers along with the addition of 15,000 temporary workers!
Since December 2007, the start of the worst U.S. recession in decades, payroll employment has fallen by 8.4 million. So, what's another 36,000 jobs lost, unless, of course, you're one of those folks that are now jobless!
The White House continues to BLAME THE WEATHER!
Dr. Williams of ShadowStats (http://www.shadowstats.com/) has a far less sanguine view of the jobs situation than da boyz in D.C. According to Dr. Williams, "the weekly new claims for unemployment insurance numbers appears to have stabilized well off its peak at around an average of 470,000 per week, a level last seen as the current economic downturn was formally underway in early 2008."
Dr. Williams goes further on to say that "there has been some flattening out in activity, where a certain layer of layoffs has tended to run its course. Layoffs should start to rise again in the next couple of months. On the offsetting hiring side, the Conference Board’s seasonally-adjusted January help-wanted advertising (newspapers) was unchanged month-to-month at 10, while the seasonally-adjusted help-wanted advertising (online) declined".
So, this "great" jobs report (sarcasm intentional!) is likely to prove to be temporary, and as the second Dip of the Double-Dip-Depression takes its grip on the economy, the unemployment rate is likely to resume its rise. We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but we just tell it like it is!
Think we're in a recovery? Think the jobs news was really good news? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Episode 4 of our new YouTube series will be posted shortly. You can access it here: http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv. We are planning 5 more episodes in the near future and will publish a schedule of upcoming segments all based on Marko's Take. I hope you've had a chance to tune in and leave comments!
This morning, the closely watched jobs report came out. The Labor Department, which carried out its surveys at the same time that the snowstorms battered the East Coast, said in a report today that non-farm payrolls fell by 36,000 compared with a revised 26,000 drop in January.
While to most people, including all of us at Marko's Take, losing jobs AGAIN would seem like bad news.
But we don't live in Washington, D.C. where it's more important to "beat the spread" than to win.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting payrolls to fall by 75,000, mainly because of the severe weather. So, the loss of "only" 36,000 jobs was a WIN! The January figure was revised from an originally reported 20,000 decline.
While jobs were LOST, the unemployment rate went DOWN! The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a different household survey, remained at 9.7% last month. Economists had forecast the jobless rate would edge higher to 9.8%.
A major factor in the "great" jobs number was care of Uncle Sam. Employment fell in construction and information, while temporary help services added jobs. Total government employment fell by 18,000, but that is mostly due to a decline in state and local jobs. The FEDERAL work force grew by 7,000, helped by an influx of Census workers along with the addition of 15,000 temporary workers!
Since December 2007, the start of the worst U.S. recession in decades, payroll employment has fallen by 8.4 million. So, what's another 36,000 jobs lost, unless, of course, you're one of those folks that are now jobless!
The White House continues to BLAME THE WEATHER!
Dr. Williams of ShadowStats (http://www.shadowstats.com/) has a far less sanguine view of the jobs situation than da boyz in D.C. According to Dr. Williams, "the weekly new claims for unemployment insurance numbers appears to have stabilized well off its peak at around an average of 470,000 per week, a level last seen as the current economic downturn was formally underway in early 2008."
Dr. Williams goes further on to say that "there has been some flattening out in activity, where a certain layer of layoffs has tended to run its course. Layoffs should start to rise again in the next couple of months. On the offsetting hiring side, the Conference Board’s seasonally-adjusted January help-wanted advertising (newspapers) was unchanged month-to-month at 10, while the seasonally-adjusted help-wanted advertising (online) declined".
So, this "great" jobs report (sarcasm intentional!) is likely to prove to be temporary, and as the second Dip of the Double-Dip-Depression takes its grip on the economy, the unemployment rate is likely to resume its rise. We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but we just tell it like it is!
Think we're in a recovery? Think the jobs news was really good news? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Episode 4 of our new YouTube series will be posted shortly. You can access it here: http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv. We are planning 5 more episodes in the near future and will publish a schedule of upcoming segments all based on Marko's Take. I hope you've had a chance to tune in and leave comments!
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