Last Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council approved a resolution for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, which includes prohibiting Tehran from buying heavy weapons, tightening financial transactions with Iranian banks and new cargo inspections.
The main thrust of the sanctions is against military purchases, trade and financial transactions carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls the nuclear program and has taken a more central role in running the country and the economy.
It also authorizes nations to conduct maritime inspections of vessels suspected of transporting prohibited items for Iran and adds 40 entities to a list of people and groups subject to travel restrictions and financial sanctions.
The resolution followed five months of strenuous negotiations between the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia. With 12 votes in favor, it received the poorest support in the 15-nation council of the four Iran sanctions resolutions adopted since 2006. Turkey and Brazil voted no, while Lebanon abstained.
After vehemently opposing sanctions, Russia appears to be taking a tougher line with Iran. Officials said yesterday that Moscow would comply strictly with the new UN sanctions and signalled that a deal to supply Iran with air-defense missiles was now off.
Predictably, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel was "doomed" and singled out U.S. President Barack Obama for derision, blaming Washington for orchestrating the sanctions.
The Obama Administration has hailed the sanctions as a key diplomatic victory despite having its proposals watered down in order to gain Chinese support and only garnering 12 votes. Domestically, however, the administration is reportedly working with Congress to ease restrictions. According to the L.A. Times, administration officials have begun negotiations with congressional leaders, who are working on versions of House and Senate bills that would punish companies that sell refined petroleum products to Iran or help the country's oil industry.
Unlike the U.N. measures, congressional action would pertain only to U.S. policies and agencies and would not be binding on other countries. Other countries and groups of nations are also considering additional measures.
For its part, Tehran has completely dismissed the sanctions. For months, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned that Iran would respond aggressively, even militarily against U.S. and Isaeali interests in the region. Any military action by Iran would undoubtedly be targeted at disrupting oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, an outcome the world hopes desperately to avoid.
Saudi Arabia, no friend of Israel, views Iran as the bigger threat. Sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a potential bombing run on Iran.
Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defense circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch a raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The 4 main targets for any raid on Iran would be the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.
Israeli officials refused to comment on details for a possible raid on Iran, which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, categorically refuses to rule out. Asked about the possibility of a Saudi flight path for Israeli bombers, Aharaon Zeevi Farkash, who headed military intelligence until 2006 and has been involved in war games simulating a strike on Iran, said: “I know that Saudi Arabia is even more afraid than Israel of an Iranian nuclear capacity.”
It looks like "show time" in the Middle East is at hand. In the last several years, Tehran has built an impressive aresenal of advanced Russian-made weapons which make Iran no pushover, even with a massive military presence by the U.S. across the border in Iraq, as well as the potent military capability of Israel.
Should any military action ensue, its economic effects may be life-changing for the entire planet. Disrupting oil flow will not be that difficult, with severe repercussions for the world. For investors, companies engaged in the production of energy outside of the Middle East ought to be huge beneficiaries. In addition, the uncertainty caused by any altercation ought to be explosively bullish for Gold.
Marko's Take
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Showing posts with label Iran Nuclear Program. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran Nuclear Program. Show all posts
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Iran Nuclear Showdown Looms Closer
Iran's nuclear program is one of the most controversial issues in one of the world's most volatile regions. American and European officials believe Tehran is planning to build nuclear weapons, while Iran's leadership mainains that its goal in developing a nuclear program is to generate electricity and preserve its vast oil reserves.
Top American military officials said in April 2010 that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb.
Pronouncements from Tehran have been all over the map. In a recent statement by Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, Iran has entered the world's "nuclear club" and major powers should accept it.
Khatami, a conservative hardliner also warned the major powers that Iran could "endanger your entire world" in any future confrontation.
The United States and Israel, Iran's arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.
Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite Muslim state, has said it would respond to any attack by targeting U.S. interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial for global oil supplies.
One key to reaching a non-military solution has been the cooperation of the United Nations Securtiy Council. China, which imports 12% of its oil from Iran, has been the most reluctant to endorse stringent sanctions.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France told President Hu Jintao of China that nations would have to impose new sanctions on Iran if it refuses to curb its nuclear program, official Chinese news organizations reported on last week.
France has joined with the United States and Britain in pushing for a new package of economic sanctions from the United Nations (UN). Those countries accuse Iran of using its nuclear program to try to develop weapons. Iran has said it is interested in pursuing nuclear power, not arms.
Addressing the UN, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said that relations with the United States might never be repaired if new sanctions were imposed against his country, that the United Nations atomic agency had no authority to interfere into matters like missiles and that, despite his contested re-election last year, Iran had not become a republic of fear.
Later in the day, he suggested that relations with Tehran might never recover from a United States push for new economic and military sanctions against Iran through the United Nations Security Council. New penalties would “mean relations between Iran and the U.S. will never be improved again,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said at a news conference.
Of major concern is what options the U.S. has in response to a threatened attack by Iran against Israel or in attempting to sabotage Middle East oil supplies.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document.
One senior official, speaking anonymously, described the document as “a wake-up call.” But White House officials dispute that view, insisting that for 15 months they had been conducting detailed planning for many possible outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Gates’s memo appears to reflect concerns in the Pentagon and the military that the White House did not have a well prepared series of alternatives in place in case all the diplomatic steps finally failed. Separately, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote a “chairman’s guidance” to his staff last December conveying a sense of urgency about contingency planning. He cautioned that a military attack would have “limited results,” but he did not convey any warnings about policy shortcomings.
Thus, as Iran continues the development of its nuclear arsenal, options available to contain the situation appear limited. Israel has repeatedly warned of a pre-emptive strike if diplomatic initiatives fail. So far, the Obama Administration has successfully convinced Israel to remain patient while discussions are taking place.
However, given the stated intention of Iran to retaliate if sanctions are imposed, the potential outcomes are strewn with high risk. The last thing the sputtering world economy needs is a major disruption of Middle East oil supplies or an all-encompassing regional war.
Marko's Take
Our latest You Tube video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem", which tells you everything you need to know about the world's largest Ponzi scheme is now posted here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI. Our subsequent video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Solution" outlines a 7-step program to fix the mess. Hope you tune in!
Top American military officials said in April 2010 that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb.
Pronouncements from Tehran have been all over the map. In a recent statement by Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, Iran has entered the world's "nuclear club" and major powers should accept it.
Khatami, a conservative hardliner also warned the major powers that Iran could "endanger your entire world" in any future confrontation.
The United States and Israel, Iran's arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.
Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite Muslim state, has said it would respond to any attack by targeting U.S. interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial for global oil supplies.
One key to reaching a non-military solution has been the cooperation of the United Nations Securtiy Council. China, which imports 12% of its oil from Iran, has been the most reluctant to endorse stringent sanctions.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France told President Hu Jintao of China that nations would have to impose new sanctions on Iran if it refuses to curb its nuclear program, official Chinese news organizations reported on last week.
France has joined with the United States and Britain in pushing for a new package of economic sanctions from the United Nations (UN). Those countries accuse Iran of using its nuclear program to try to develop weapons. Iran has said it is interested in pursuing nuclear power, not arms.
Addressing the UN, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said that relations with the United States might never be repaired if new sanctions were imposed against his country, that the United Nations atomic agency had no authority to interfere into matters like missiles and that, despite his contested re-election last year, Iran had not become a republic of fear.
Later in the day, he suggested that relations with Tehran might never recover from a United States push for new economic and military sanctions against Iran through the United Nations Security Council. New penalties would “mean relations between Iran and the U.S. will never be improved again,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said at a news conference.
Of major concern is what options the U.S. has in response to a threatened attack by Iran against Israel or in attempting to sabotage Middle East oil supplies.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document.
One senior official, speaking anonymously, described the document as “a wake-up call.” But White House officials dispute that view, insisting that for 15 months they had been conducting detailed planning for many possible outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Gates’s memo appears to reflect concerns in the Pentagon and the military that the White House did not have a well prepared series of alternatives in place in case all the diplomatic steps finally failed. Separately, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote a “chairman’s guidance” to his staff last December conveying a sense of urgency about contingency planning. He cautioned that a military attack would have “limited results,” but he did not convey any warnings about policy shortcomings.
Thus, as Iran continues the development of its nuclear arsenal, options available to contain the situation appear limited. Israel has repeatedly warned of a pre-emptive strike if diplomatic initiatives fail. So far, the Obama Administration has successfully convinced Israel to remain patient while discussions are taking place.
However, given the stated intention of Iran to retaliate if sanctions are imposed, the potential outcomes are strewn with high risk. The last thing the sputtering world economy needs is a major disruption of Middle East oil supplies or an all-encompassing regional war.
Marko's Take
Our latest You Tube video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem", which tells you everything you need to know about the world's largest Ponzi scheme is now posted here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI. Our subsequent video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Solution" outlines a 7-step program to fix the mess. Hope you tune in!
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