As if the world and the United States didn't have enough holes in their collective dams to plug, here comes yet another leak. Based on a recent interview with John Bolton, who has served as an interim ambassador to the United Nations from August 2005 to December 2006, action against Tehran must be taken within days, or risk a nuclear enemy in the resource rich Middle East.
Israel has days to launch a military strike against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility and stop Tehran from acquiring a functioning atomic plant, Bolton said.
Iran is to bring online its first nuclear power reactor, built with Russia's help, on August 21, when a shipment of nuclear fuel will be loaded into the plant's core. Russia, voted for the sanctions, yet has assisted Iran in bringing this facility on line. What does Russia care? They are one of a small group of countries whose oil supplies are growing. No Peak Oil for them.
At that point, Bolton warned, it will be too late for Israel to launch a military strike against the facility because any attack would spread radiation and affect Iranian civilians.
"Once that uranium, once those fuel rods are very close to the reactor, certainly once they're in the reactor, attacking it means a release of radiation, no question about it," Bolton told Fox Business Network.
Absent an Israeli strike, Bolton said, "Iran will achieve something that no other opponent of Israel, no other enemy of the United States in the Middle East really has and that is a functioning nuclear reactor."
The UN Security Council hit Tehran with a fourth set of sanctions on June 9 over its nuclear programme, and the United States and European Union followed up with tougher punitive measures targeting Iran's banking and energy sectors.
Bolton doubts that any military action is forthcoming, however. In fact, despite his warning, he believes the window of action may have already closed.
The significance of this to investors is multi-fold. In the first place, any military action would undoubtedly cause a major disruption in Middle East oil and a closure of the Gulf of Oman shipping lanes. That would have grave consequences on the world economy and the financial markets.
Secondly, the other impact would be a heightened crisis bid in Gold. One can only imagine the resultant spike in the price of Gold. We could see a move of $100 per ounce in minutes or even more.
A deflationary scare might suddenly turn into an inflationary scare.
For the record, one must believe that the odds of such a dramatic occurrence is pretty low. The world is already engaged in numerous military conflicts and resources are quite constrained for more military spending. But, it does alter the investment calculus. One would be well-advised to maintain some positions in assets that benefit from crises. GOLD.
Marko's Take
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Showdown With Iran Looms Closer
Last Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council approved a resolution for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, which includes prohibiting Tehran from buying heavy weapons, tightening financial transactions with Iranian banks and new cargo inspections.
The main thrust of the sanctions is against military purchases, trade and financial transactions carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls the nuclear program and has taken a more central role in running the country and the economy.
It also authorizes nations to conduct maritime inspections of vessels suspected of transporting prohibited items for Iran and adds 40 entities to a list of people and groups subject to travel restrictions and financial sanctions.
The resolution followed five months of strenuous negotiations between the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia. With 12 votes in favor, it received the poorest support in the 15-nation council of the four Iran sanctions resolutions adopted since 2006. Turkey and Brazil voted no, while Lebanon abstained.
After vehemently opposing sanctions, Russia appears to be taking a tougher line with Iran. Officials said yesterday that Moscow would comply strictly with the new UN sanctions and signalled that a deal to supply Iran with air-defense missiles was now off.
Predictably, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel was "doomed" and singled out U.S. President Barack Obama for derision, blaming Washington for orchestrating the sanctions.
The Obama Administration has hailed the sanctions as a key diplomatic victory despite having its proposals watered down in order to gain Chinese support and only garnering 12 votes. Domestically, however, the administration is reportedly working with Congress to ease restrictions. According to the L.A. Times, administration officials have begun negotiations with congressional leaders, who are working on versions of House and Senate bills that would punish companies that sell refined petroleum products to Iran or help the country's oil industry.
Unlike the U.N. measures, congressional action would pertain only to U.S. policies and agencies and would not be binding on other countries. Other countries and groups of nations are also considering additional measures.
For its part, Tehran has completely dismissed the sanctions. For months, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned that Iran would respond aggressively, even militarily against U.S. and Isaeali interests in the region. Any military action by Iran would undoubtedly be targeted at disrupting oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, an outcome the world hopes desperately to avoid.
Saudi Arabia, no friend of Israel, views Iran as the bigger threat. Sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a potential bombing run on Iran.
Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defense circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch a raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The 4 main targets for any raid on Iran would be the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.
Israeli officials refused to comment on details for a possible raid on Iran, which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, categorically refuses to rule out. Asked about the possibility of a Saudi flight path for Israeli bombers, Aharaon Zeevi Farkash, who headed military intelligence until 2006 and has been involved in war games simulating a strike on Iran, said: “I know that Saudi Arabia is even more afraid than Israel of an Iranian nuclear capacity.”
It looks like "show time" in the Middle East is at hand. In the last several years, Tehran has built an impressive aresenal of advanced Russian-made weapons which make Iran no pushover, even with a massive military presence by the U.S. across the border in Iraq, as well as the potent military capability of Israel.
Should any military action ensue, its economic effects may be life-changing for the entire planet. Disrupting oil flow will not be that difficult, with severe repercussions for the world. For investors, companies engaged in the production of energy outside of the Middle East ought to be huge beneficiaries. In addition, the uncertainty caused by any altercation ought to be explosively bullish for Gold.
Marko's Take
If you're looking for some great investing information at a reasonable price, we would like to suggest that you check out the following sites: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/, http://www.aegeancapital.com/, http://www.marketviews.tv/, http://www.goldpennystocks.com/, and, of course, our FREE and, oh so informative You Tube channel at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv.
The main thrust of the sanctions is against military purchases, trade and financial transactions carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls the nuclear program and has taken a more central role in running the country and the economy.
It also authorizes nations to conduct maritime inspections of vessels suspected of transporting prohibited items for Iran and adds 40 entities to a list of people and groups subject to travel restrictions and financial sanctions.
The resolution followed five months of strenuous negotiations between the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia. With 12 votes in favor, it received the poorest support in the 15-nation council of the four Iran sanctions resolutions adopted since 2006. Turkey and Brazil voted no, while Lebanon abstained.
After vehemently opposing sanctions, Russia appears to be taking a tougher line with Iran. Officials said yesterday that Moscow would comply strictly with the new UN sanctions and signalled that a deal to supply Iran with air-defense missiles was now off.
Predictably, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel was "doomed" and singled out U.S. President Barack Obama for derision, blaming Washington for orchestrating the sanctions.
The Obama Administration has hailed the sanctions as a key diplomatic victory despite having its proposals watered down in order to gain Chinese support and only garnering 12 votes. Domestically, however, the administration is reportedly working with Congress to ease restrictions. According to the L.A. Times, administration officials have begun negotiations with congressional leaders, who are working on versions of House and Senate bills that would punish companies that sell refined petroleum products to Iran or help the country's oil industry.
Unlike the U.N. measures, congressional action would pertain only to U.S. policies and agencies and would not be binding on other countries. Other countries and groups of nations are also considering additional measures.
For its part, Tehran has completely dismissed the sanctions. For months, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned that Iran would respond aggressively, even militarily against U.S. and Isaeali interests in the region. Any military action by Iran would undoubtedly be targeted at disrupting oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, an outcome the world hopes desperately to avoid.
Saudi Arabia, no friend of Israel, views Iran as the bigger threat. Sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a potential bombing run on Iran.
Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defense circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch a raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The 4 main targets for any raid on Iran would be the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.
Israeli officials refused to comment on details for a possible raid on Iran, which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, categorically refuses to rule out. Asked about the possibility of a Saudi flight path for Israeli bombers, Aharaon Zeevi Farkash, who headed military intelligence until 2006 and has been involved in war games simulating a strike on Iran, said: “I know that Saudi Arabia is even more afraid than Israel of an Iranian nuclear capacity.”
It looks like "show time" in the Middle East is at hand. In the last several years, Tehran has built an impressive aresenal of advanced Russian-made weapons which make Iran no pushover, even with a massive military presence by the U.S. across the border in Iraq, as well as the potent military capability of Israel.
Should any military action ensue, its economic effects may be life-changing for the entire planet. Disrupting oil flow will not be that difficult, with severe repercussions for the world. For investors, companies engaged in the production of energy outside of the Middle East ought to be huge beneficiaries. In addition, the uncertainty caused by any altercation ought to be explosively bullish for Gold.
Marko's Take
If you're looking for some great investing information at a reasonable price, we would like to suggest that you check out the following sites: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/, http://www.aegeancapital.com/, http://www.marketviews.tv/, http://www.goldpennystocks.com/, and, of course, our FREE and, oh so informative You Tube channel at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
World War III Continued
Inevitably, difficult financial times lead to more militarism. Currently, there are more than 50 military conflicts that are active and some, like the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, are threatening to explode into all-out multi-nation wars.
The continent of Africa has been plagued by no less than 20 civil wars in the last few decades, although these are primarily tribal conflicts which are very localized. The MAJOR conflicts include the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the threatened nuclear showdown in the Middle East over proposed sanctions against Iran and the recent escalation of tension in North Korea. Lesser conflicts, tame for now, include the Chechen and Georgian civil wars which have threatened Russia.
Global military spending has grown sharply at a time when few countries can afford it given the massive budget deficits so many of them face. World military expenditures in 2008 are estimated to have reached $1.464 trillion in current dollars versus just over $1.2 trillion in 2005 adjusted for inflation.
This represents a 4% increase in real terms since 2007 and a 45% increase over the 10-year period since 1999. Put differently, worldwide military spending equates to 2.4% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or $217 for each person in the world.
The U.S., with its massive spending budget, is the principal determinant of the current world trend and its military expenditure now accounts for 41.5% of the world total.
After Washington, the next highest spenders are China (5.8% of world total), France and Britain (4.5% each) and Russia (4.0%). The next 10 countries combined represent about 21.1% of the total with the rest of the planet making up the remaining 18.6%.
The total U.S. military budget of approximately $700 billion, if completely wiped out, would not even cut the budget deficit in half! It represents more than 50% of the entire discretionary portion of the budget. Of that total, about $200 billion is being spent annually in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sadly, rising tensions in two key areas of the world, the Middle East and Korea, suggest that a reduction in military spending is very unlikely in the intermediate term.
Korean tensions have resulted from recent revelations that North Korea is responsible for the sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan in March. Because nuclear power North Korea shares a border with China, Beijing has been restrained about supporting sanctions against Pyongyang. That seems to have changed.
During a visit to Seoul yesterday, China’s premier Wen Jiabao said that China would not protect “whoever sank” the South Korean warship, offering Seoul some encouragement that Beijing might not block moves to punish North Korea at the United Nations Security Council for killing 46 sailors.
South Korea has given China the complete technical report on the sinking and has said it would welcome a Chinese delegation should they want to inspect the shattered hull and corroded torpedo retrieved from the seabed.
North Korea has put its oversized army on alert and has threatened to invade South Korea if Seoul breaches any restricted areas. The last thing China wants is a nuclear civil war on its southern border with millions of Korean refugees seeking asylum.
Russia also has a keen interest in the Korean Peninsula. Moscow said on Thursday that it would stage large-scale naval exercises off North Korea next month that were planned before the stand-off on the peninsula. Sailors “will be on a high level of alert and capable of reacting adequately to any threat”, the Russian Navy told Interfax.
Iran sits on the second largest oil reserves on the planet and is vying to join the nuclear club, a policy vehemently opposed by Israel and the United States as well as the United Nations Security Council. Opposition to Tehran's plans now includes France, China, Russia and Britain - making it virtually certain that sanctions will be imposed. Iran has responded to the possibility of sanctions by threatening military action in the region and cutting off oil exports which need to go through the Straits of Hormuz.
The criticality of maintaining oil flow virtually assures a multi-nation armed conflict and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or Iran with the inevitable rise in global terrorism. It is also likely that any regional conflict would draw in nations such as Syria, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen and Egypt who will oppose any action taken by Israel.
Unfortunately, the militarism witnessed today is only likely to grow worse. As nations become more determined to "look out for number one", the ability to cooperate diplomatically will be less likely. Otherwise, passive domestic populations will become more supportive of military actions to protect their countries economic interests. Defaulting debtor nations will incur the wrath of their creditors. Protective trade restrictions, which were utter failures during the Great Depression, will become more politically popular.
This is yet another reason to maintain a heavy stake in Gold. If free trade becomes restricted, currencies will be less useful as a means of exchange and the use of the only globally recognized currency will increase exponentially.
Marko's Take
Our latest video blog which proposes a 7-Step solution to fixing Social Security will be posted in the next day. If you want to know the important aspects of that fraud and ponzi scheme called Social Security, check out our video entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem' by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI.
The continent of Africa has been plagued by no less than 20 civil wars in the last few decades, although these are primarily tribal conflicts which are very localized. The MAJOR conflicts include the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the threatened nuclear showdown in the Middle East over proposed sanctions against Iran and the recent escalation of tension in North Korea. Lesser conflicts, tame for now, include the Chechen and Georgian civil wars which have threatened Russia.
Global military spending has grown sharply at a time when few countries can afford it given the massive budget deficits so many of them face. World military expenditures in 2008 are estimated to have reached $1.464 trillion in current dollars versus just over $1.2 trillion in 2005 adjusted for inflation.
This represents a 4% increase in real terms since 2007 and a 45% increase over the 10-year period since 1999. Put differently, worldwide military spending equates to 2.4% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or $217 for each person in the world.
The U.S., with its massive spending budget, is the principal determinant of the current world trend and its military expenditure now accounts for 41.5% of the world total.
After Washington, the next highest spenders are China (5.8% of world total), France and Britain (4.5% each) and Russia (4.0%). The next 10 countries combined represent about 21.1% of the total with the rest of the planet making up the remaining 18.6%.
The total U.S. military budget of approximately $700 billion, if completely wiped out, would not even cut the budget deficit in half! It represents more than 50% of the entire discretionary portion of the budget. Of that total, about $200 billion is being spent annually in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sadly, rising tensions in two key areas of the world, the Middle East and Korea, suggest that a reduction in military spending is very unlikely in the intermediate term.
Korean tensions have resulted from recent revelations that North Korea is responsible for the sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan in March. Because nuclear power North Korea shares a border with China, Beijing has been restrained about supporting sanctions against Pyongyang. That seems to have changed.
During a visit to Seoul yesterday, China’s premier Wen Jiabao said that China would not protect “whoever sank” the South Korean warship, offering Seoul some encouragement that Beijing might not block moves to punish North Korea at the United Nations Security Council for killing 46 sailors.
South Korea has given China the complete technical report on the sinking and has said it would welcome a Chinese delegation should they want to inspect the shattered hull and corroded torpedo retrieved from the seabed.
North Korea has put its oversized army on alert and has threatened to invade South Korea if Seoul breaches any restricted areas. The last thing China wants is a nuclear civil war on its southern border with millions of Korean refugees seeking asylum.
Russia also has a keen interest in the Korean Peninsula. Moscow said on Thursday that it would stage large-scale naval exercises off North Korea next month that were planned before the stand-off on the peninsula. Sailors “will be on a high level of alert and capable of reacting adequately to any threat”, the Russian Navy told Interfax.
Iran sits on the second largest oil reserves on the planet and is vying to join the nuclear club, a policy vehemently opposed by Israel and the United States as well as the United Nations Security Council. Opposition to Tehran's plans now includes France, China, Russia and Britain - making it virtually certain that sanctions will be imposed. Iran has responded to the possibility of sanctions by threatening military action in the region and cutting off oil exports which need to go through the Straits of Hormuz.
The criticality of maintaining oil flow virtually assures a multi-nation armed conflict and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or Iran with the inevitable rise in global terrorism. It is also likely that any regional conflict would draw in nations such as Syria, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen and Egypt who will oppose any action taken by Israel.
Unfortunately, the militarism witnessed today is only likely to grow worse. As nations become more determined to "look out for number one", the ability to cooperate diplomatically will be less likely. Otherwise, passive domestic populations will become more supportive of military actions to protect their countries economic interests. Defaulting debtor nations will incur the wrath of their creditors. Protective trade restrictions, which were utter failures during the Great Depression, will become more politically popular.
This is yet another reason to maintain a heavy stake in Gold. If free trade becomes restricted, currencies will be less useful as a means of exchange and the use of the only globally recognized currency will increase exponentially.
Marko's Take
Our latest video blog which proposes a 7-Step solution to fixing Social Security will be posted in the next day. If you want to know the important aspects of that fraud and ponzi scheme called Social Security, check out our video entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem' by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Iran Nuclear Showdown Looms Closer
Iran's nuclear program is one of the most controversial issues in one of the world's most volatile regions. American and European officials believe Tehran is planning to build nuclear weapons, while Iran's leadership mainains that its goal in developing a nuclear program is to generate electricity and preserve its vast oil reserves.
Top American military officials said in April 2010 that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb.
Pronouncements from Tehran have been all over the map. In a recent statement by Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, Iran has entered the world's "nuclear club" and major powers should accept it.
Khatami, a conservative hardliner also warned the major powers that Iran could "endanger your entire world" in any future confrontation.
The United States and Israel, Iran's arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.
Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite Muslim state, has said it would respond to any attack by targeting U.S. interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial for global oil supplies.
One key to reaching a non-military solution has been the cooperation of the United Nations Securtiy Council. China, which imports 12% of its oil from Iran, has been the most reluctant to endorse stringent sanctions.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France told President Hu Jintao of China that nations would have to impose new sanctions on Iran if it refuses to curb its nuclear program, official Chinese news organizations reported on last week.
France has joined with the United States and Britain in pushing for a new package of economic sanctions from the United Nations (UN). Those countries accuse Iran of using its nuclear program to try to develop weapons. Iran has said it is interested in pursuing nuclear power, not arms.
Addressing the UN, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said that relations with the United States might never be repaired if new sanctions were imposed against his country, that the United Nations atomic agency had no authority to interfere into matters like missiles and that, despite his contested re-election last year, Iran had not become a republic of fear.
Later in the day, he suggested that relations with Tehran might never recover from a United States push for new economic and military sanctions against Iran through the United Nations Security Council. New penalties would “mean relations between Iran and the U.S. will never be improved again,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said at a news conference.
Of major concern is what options the U.S. has in response to a threatened attack by Iran against Israel or in attempting to sabotage Middle East oil supplies.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document.
One senior official, speaking anonymously, described the document as “a wake-up call.” But White House officials dispute that view, insisting that for 15 months they had been conducting detailed planning for many possible outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Gates’s memo appears to reflect concerns in the Pentagon and the military that the White House did not have a well prepared series of alternatives in place in case all the diplomatic steps finally failed. Separately, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote a “chairman’s guidance” to his staff last December conveying a sense of urgency about contingency planning. He cautioned that a military attack would have “limited results,” but he did not convey any warnings about policy shortcomings.
Thus, as Iran continues the development of its nuclear arsenal, options available to contain the situation appear limited. Israel has repeatedly warned of a pre-emptive strike if diplomatic initiatives fail. So far, the Obama Administration has successfully convinced Israel to remain patient while discussions are taking place.
However, given the stated intention of Iran to retaliate if sanctions are imposed, the potential outcomes are strewn with high risk. The last thing the sputtering world economy needs is a major disruption of Middle East oil supplies or an all-encompassing regional war.
Marko's Take
Our latest You Tube video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem", which tells you everything you need to know about the world's largest Ponzi scheme is now posted here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI. Our subsequent video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Solution" outlines a 7-step program to fix the mess. Hope you tune in!
Top American military officials said in April 2010 that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb.
Pronouncements from Tehran have been all over the map. In a recent statement by Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, Iran has entered the world's "nuclear club" and major powers should accept it.
Khatami, a conservative hardliner also warned the major powers that Iran could "endanger your entire world" in any future confrontation.
The United States and Israel, Iran's arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.
Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite Muslim state, has said it would respond to any attack by targeting U.S. interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial for global oil supplies.
One key to reaching a non-military solution has been the cooperation of the United Nations Securtiy Council. China, which imports 12% of its oil from Iran, has been the most reluctant to endorse stringent sanctions.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France told President Hu Jintao of China that nations would have to impose new sanctions on Iran if it refuses to curb its nuclear program, official Chinese news organizations reported on last week.
France has joined with the United States and Britain in pushing for a new package of economic sanctions from the United Nations (UN). Those countries accuse Iran of using its nuclear program to try to develop weapons. Iran has said it is interested in pursuing nuclear power, not arms.
Addressing the UN, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said that relations with the United States might never be repaired if new sanctions were imposed against his country, that the United Nations atomic agency had no authority to interfere into matters like missiles and that, despite his contested re-election last year, Iran had not become a republic of fear.
Later in the day, he suggested that relations with Tehran might never recover from a United States push for new economic and military sanctions against Iran through the United Nations Security Council. New penalties would “mean relations between Iran and the U.S. will never be improved again,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said at a news conference.
Of major concern is what options the U.S. has in response to a threatened attack by Iran against Israel or in attempting to sabotage Middle East oil supplies.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document.
One senior official, speaking anonymously, described the document as “a wake-up call.” But White House officials dispute that view, insisting that for 15 months they had been conducting detailed planning for many possible outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Gates’s memo appears to reflect concerns in the Pentagon and the military that the White House did not have a well prepared series of alternatives in place in case all the diplomatic steps finally failed. Separately, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote a “chairman’s guidance” to his staff last December conveying a sense of urgency about contingency planning. He cautioned that a military attack would have “limited results,” but he did not convey any warnings about policy shortcomings.
Thus, as Iran continues the development of its nuclear arsenal, options available to contain the situation appear limited. Israel has repeatedly warned of a pre-emptive strike if diplomatic initiatives fail. So far, the Obama Administration has successfully convinced Israel to remain patient while discussions are taking place.
However, given the stated intention of Iran to retaliate if sanctions are imposed, the potential outcomes are strewn with high risk. The last thing the sputtering world economy needs is a major disruption of Middle East oil supplies or an all-encompassing regional war.
Marko's Take
Our latest You Tube video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem", which tells you everything you need to know about the world's largest Ponzi scheme is now posted here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI. Our subsequent video, entitled "Social In-Security: The Solution" outlines a 7-step program to fix the mess. Hope you tune in!
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Middle East Reaching A Fever Point!
But then, when ISN'T it?
Recent developments suggest that a major conflict is imminent. I first wrote about an impending war with Iran several weeks ago (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/war-with-iran-imminent.html).
Of course, that hasn't come to fruition... yet! But recent developments suggest that the liklihood of a major military episode has gotten much higher. Russia had formerly been a staunch supporter of Iran and had gone so far as to threaten to intervene if the U.S. got involved. Recently, Russia has suggested that its view of Iran's nuclear program has changed. It now views the emergence of a nuclear Iran as a threat.
According to an article in Times Online, Israel is waging a covert assassination campaign across the Middle East in an effort to stop its key enemies from co-ordinating their activities. Israeli agents have been targeting meetings between members of Hamas, the leadership of the militant Hezbollah group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
They are also suspected of recent killings in Dubai, Damascus and Beirut. While Israel’s Mossad spy agency has been suspected of staging assassinations across the world since the 1970s, it does not officially acknowledge or admit its activities.
The current spate of killings began in December when a “tourist bus” carrying Iranian officials and Hamas members exploded outside Damascus. The official report by Syria claimed that a tire had exploded, but photographs surfaced showing the charred remains of the vehicle — prompting speculation that a much larger explosion had taken place.
Several weeks later a meeting between members of Hamas, which controls Gaza, and their counterparts from Hezbollah, in its southern Beirut stronghold in Lebanon, was attacked, resulting in several deaths. Several international networks have said that Iran is disrupting their Farsi-language satellite transmissions, Israel Radio reported Friday.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran has been blocking GMail since last Thursday. BBC Radio, The Voice of America and the German network Deutsche Welle defined the interference as electronic disturbances from Iran.
Any military strike against Iran would be very risky, even according to internal Isreali sources. While endorsing international efforts to pressure Tehran into curbing sensitive nuclear technologies, Israel has hinted it could resort to force. But some analysts say Israeli jets would be stymied by the distance to Iran and by its defences.
Asked in a television interview about Israeli leaders' vows to "take care" of the perceived threat, ex-general Dan Halutz, who stepped down as armed forces chief in 2007, said: "We are taking upon ourselves a task that is bigger than us" (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61C0CZ.htm).
The United States and European nations are trying to enlist other world powers in stepping up sanctions against Iran for its uranium enrichment, a process with bomb-making potential. Tehran denies having hostile designs, but its anti-Israel rhetoric has stirred war fears. Some analysts believe Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, neither confirms nor denies this capability.
It may be that another military confrontation in the Middle East is inevitable. We hope not. However, if one should occur, the obvious implications are MUCH higher oil prices and MUCH higher Gold prices.
Care to weigh in? Care to disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Related articles: (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/world-war-iii-has-begun.html)
Recent developments suggest that a major conflict is imminent. I first wrote about an impending war with Iran several weeks ago (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/war-with-iran-imminent.html).
Of course, that hasn't come to fruition... yet! But recent developments suggest that the liklihood of a major military episode has gotten much higher. Russia had formerly been a staunch supporter of Iran and had gone so far as to threaten to intervene if the U.S. got involved. Recently, Russia has suggested that its view of Iran's nuclear program has changed. It now views the emergence of a nuclear Iran as a threat.
According to an article in Times Online, Israel is waging a covert assassination campaign across the Middle East in an effort to stop its key enemies from co-ordinating their activities. Israeli agents have been targeting meetings between members of Hamas, the leadership of the militant Hezbollah group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
They are also suspected of recent killings in Dubai, Damascus and Beirut. While Israel’s Mossad spy agency has been suspected of staging assassinations across the world since the 1970s, it does not officially acknowledge or admit its activities.
The current spate of killings began in December when a “tourist bus” carrying Iranian officials and Hamas members exploded outside Damascus. The official report by Syria claimed that a tire had exploded, but photographs surfaced showing the charred remains of the vehicle — prompting speculation that a much larger explosion had taken place.
Several weeks later a meeting between members of Hamas, which controls Gaza, and their counterparts from Hezbollah, in its southern Beirut stronghold in Lebanon, was attacked, resulting in several deaths. Several international networks have said that Iran is disrupting their Farsi-language satellite transmissions, Israel Radio reported Friday.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran has been blocking GMail since last Thursday. BBC Radio, The Voice of America and the German network Deutsche Welle defined the interference as electronic disturbances from Iran.
Any military strike against Iran would be very risky, even according to internal Isreali sources. While endorsing international efforts to pressure Tehran into curbing sensitive nuclear technologies, Israel has hinted it could resort to force. But some analysts say Israeli jets would be stymied by the distance to Iran and by its defences.
Asked in a television interview about Israeli leaders' vows to "take care" of the perceived threat, ex-general Dan Halutz, who stepped down as armed forces chief in 2007, said: "We are taking upon ourselves a task that is bigger than us" (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61C0CZ.htm).
The United States and European nations are trying to enlist other world powers in stepping up sanctions against Iran for its uranium enrichment, a process with bomb-making potential. Tehran denies having hostile designs, but its anti-Israel rhetoric has stirred war fears. Some analysts believe Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, neither confirms nor denies this capability.
It may be that another military confrontation in the Middle East is inevitable. We hope not. However, if one should occur, the obvious implications are MUCH higher oil prices and MUCH higher Gold prices.
Care to weigh in? Care to disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Related articles: (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/world-war-iii-has-begun.html)
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