But then, when ISN'T it?
Recent developments suggest that a major conflict is imminent. I first wrote about an impending war with Iran several weeks ago (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/war-with-iran-imminent.html).
Of course, that hasn't come to fruition... yet! But recent developments suggest that the liklihood of a major military episode has gotten much higher. Russia had formerly been a staunch supporter of Iran and had gone so far as to threaten to intervene if the U.S. got involved. Recently, Russia has suggested that its view of Iran's nuclear program has changed. It now views the emergence of a nuclear Iran as a threat.
According to an article in Times Online, Israel is waging a covert assassination campaign across the Middle East in an effort to stop its key enemies from co-ordinating their activities. Israeli agents have been targeting meetings between members of Hamas, the leadership of the militant Hezbollah group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
They are also suspected of recent killings in Dubai, Damascus and Beirut. While Israel’s Mossad spy agency has been suspected of staging assassinations across the world since the 1970s, it does not officially acknowledge or admit its activities.
The current spate of killings began in December when a “tourist bus” carrying Iranian officials and Hamas members exploded outside Damascus. The official report by Syria claimed that a tire had exploded, but photographs surfaced showing the charred remains of the vehicle — prompting speculation that a much larger explosion had taken place.
Several weeks later a meeting between members of Hamas, which controls Gaza, and their counterparts from Hezbollah, in its southern Beirut stronghold in Lebanon, was attacked, resulting in several deaths. Several international networks have said that Iran is disrupting their Farsi-language satellite transmissions, Israel Radio reported Friday.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran has been blocking GMail since last Thursday. BBC Radio, The Voice of America and the German network Deutsche Welle defined the interference as electronic disturbances from Iran.
Any military strike against Iran would be very risky, even according to internal Isreali sources. While endorsing international efforts to pressure Tehran into curbing sensitive nuclear technologies, Israel has hinted it could resort to force. But some analysts say Israeli jets would be stymied by the distance to Iran and by its defences.
Asked in a television interview about Israeli leaders' vows to "take care" of the perceived threat, ex-general Dan Halutz, who stepped down as armed forces chief in 2007, said: "We are taking upon ourselves a task that is bigger than us" (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61C0CZ.htm).
The United States and European nations are trying to enlist other world powers in stepping up sanctions against Iran for its uranium enrichment, a process with bomb-making potential. Tehran denies having hostile designs, but its anti-Israel rhetoric has stirred war fears. Some analysts believe Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, neither confirms nor denies this capability.
It may be that another military confrontation in the Middle East is inevitable. We hope not. However, if one should occur, the obvious implications are MUCH higher oil prices and MUCH higher Gold prices.
Care to weigh in? Care to disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Related articles: (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/world-war-iii-has-begun.html)
Showing posts with label civil war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label civil war. Show all posts
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
World War III Has Begun!
I believe, that sometime way in the future, historians will have concluded that World War III had already begun BEFORE this blog was written. You may be wondering what on Earth Marko is smoking, so let me 'splain.
At one time, the concept of war was throwing rocks. It then advanced, in a series of stages to guns, bombs and then nukes. A World War meant that a bunch of countries with aligned interests banded together to fight a different group of countries. Not that the "allies" were in any way friends - they shared a common enemy or enemies and a consortium of sorts got created. In World Wars I and II, the "teams" were obvious. You didn't need a scorecard. Today, that's all changed.
War now consists of AT LEAST 5 components: military, terrorism, financial, trade and economic. (One also need take into account civil war). Each subcomponent has it's own set of allies. Take any country and it will be at some stage of war with any other country, or just about. Here are a few examples of how confusing this new definition of war can be.
China is at war with the United States financially and economically, but not militarily (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6183KG20100209)... yet. The article sited in the previous sentence discusses the Chinese military's desire to punish the U.S. economically!
Russia was opposed to the possibility of U.S. involvement in Iran, but now is not (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e54b266-15ae-11df-ad7e-00144feab49a.html). However, Russia is at odds with the U.S. over the addition of the Ukraine to NATO and military war has recently broken out between Russia and Ukraine over delivery of natural gas.
Confused? Let's keep going.
The U.S. is at war militarily against Afghanistan, which is surreptitiously being supported by Pakistan - supposedly a U.S. military ally. Israel is in a virtual state of war with the entire Middle East militarily and from terrorism, but seems fine on the economic, financial and trade front in large part because of its protected status as a U.S. proxy.
Large holders of U.S. Dollars are engaged in a form of financial war with America. They feel cheated by the continual degradation of the greenback and the debasement of their dollar-based wealth. Yesterday, I wrote about the problems with Sovereign debt, especially in the "PIGS" countries of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/sovereign-debt-crisis-threatens-to-take.html). If these countries should default, they risk military war with holders of their debt.
There is a precedent. After World War I, the reparations imposed on Germany proved a hurdle that the country could not overcome. The country began debasing its currency, hyper-inflation ensued and then came the rise of Adolf Hitler, which led to World War II.
As you can gather, the matrix of the various elements of "War", as defined by "Marko's Take", is exponential and encompasses virtually the entire planet! Unfortunately, it WILL get worse! Economic, financial and trade war will, with virtual certainty, lead to military war. The question is how every country will align and on which dimensions.
Thus, I argue that we are already well into World War III and that, while it does not appear so yet, it soon will become OBVIOUS. All we can do is hope that sanity somehow prevails and the "Ball of Confusion", known as Earth, does not blow itself to smithereens.
Further compounding things in the U.S. is the fact that we are in the early stages of a CIVIL WAR. The young are pitted against the old via Social Security, the races are boiling over and the "boys club" in Washington, D.C., is at war with ALL OF US!
So, what do YOU think? I think you should TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
At one time, the concept of war was throwing rocks. It then advanced, in a series of stages to guns, bombs and then nukes. A World War meant that a bunch of countries with aligned interests banded together to fight a different group of countries. Not that the "allies" were in any way friends - they shared a common enemy or enemies and a consortium of sorts got created. In World Wars I and II, the "teams" were obvious. You didn't need a scorecard. Today, that's all changed.
War now consists of AT LEAST 5 components: military, terrorism, financial, trade and economic. (One also need take into account civil war). Each subcomponent has it's own set of allies. Take any country and it will be at some stage of war with any other country, or just about. Here are a few examples of how confusing this new definition of war can be.
China is at war with the United States financially and economically, but not militarily (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6183KG20100209)... yet. The article sited in the previous sentence discusses the Chinese military's desire to punish the U.S. economically!
Russia was opposed to the possibility of U.S. involvement in Iran, but now is not (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e54b266-15ae-11df-ad7e-00144feab49a.html). However, Russia is at odds with the U.S. over the addition of the Ukraine to NATO and military war has recently broken out between Russia and Ukraine over delivery of natural gas.
Confused? Let's keep going.
The U.S. is at war militarily against Afghanistan, which is surreptitiously being supported by Pakistan - supposedly a U.S. military ally. Israel is in a virtual state of war with the entire Middle East militarily and from terrorism, but seems fine on the economic, financial and trade front in large part because of its protected status as a U.S. proxy.
Large holders of U.S. Dollars are engaged in a form of financial war with America. They feel cheated by the continual degradation of the greenback and the debasement of their dollar-based wealth. Yesterday, I wrote about the problems with Sovereign debt, especially in the "PIGS" countries of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/sovereign-debt-crisis-threatens-to-take.html). If these countries should default, they risk military war with holders of their debt.
There is a precedent. After World War I, the reparations imposed on Germany proved a hurdle that the country could not overcome. The country began debasing its currency, hyper-inflation ensued and then came the rise of Adolf Hitler, which led to World War II.
As you can gather, the matrix of the various elements of "War", as defined by "Marko's Take", is exponential and encompasses virtually the entire planet! Unfortunately, it WILL get worse! Economic, financial and trade war will, with virtual certainty, lead to military war. The question is how every country will align and on which dimensions.
Thus, I argue that we are already well into World War III and that, while it does not appear so yet, it soon will become OBVIOUS. All we can do is hope that sanity somehow prevails and the "Ball of Confusion", known as Earth, does not blow itself to smithereens.
Further compounding things in the U.S. is the fact that we are in the early stages of a CIVIL WAR. The young are pitted against the old via Social Security, the races are boiling over and the "boys club" in Washington, D.C., is at war with ALL OF US!
So, what do YOU think? I think you should TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
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