Saturday, January 2, 2010

Why Does The Stock Market Act Like The Energizer Bunny?

It keeps going and going and going.  And, not to the men's room!

Being serious, the stock market rally has me a tad puzzled for a variety of reasons which I'll outline. 

A rally off the March lows was very expectable to something like 9,500, which would roughly be the midpoint of its all-time high of approximately 14,000 and recent low of 6,600.  Yet, it has been recently flirting with 11,000, closed the year at 10,428 and change and seems poised to shoot higher still!

This has various market timers, especially those empolying an idiotic system known as the "Elliot Wave" in a complete snit and ready for the loonie bin, if they're not there already!  I realize that most readers will not be familiar with the Elliott Wave, but it can be "googled" in Wikipedia.  If you DO read about it, you'll realize how utterly complicated, ridiculous and unreliable it is!

According to the Wall St. Journal, the reason for the rise is the unprecedented stimulus and money creation by the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Obama Administration.  According to Marko's Take, it is not.  According to others, the stock market is anticipating a powerful economic recovery, especially by the talking heads at CNBC!  Again, according to Marko's Take, it is not.

As you've gathered, my "thesis" is entirely different!  I believe the ongoing rally is a combination of two factors:  the severely needed bounce off the March lows and market manipulation by the troika consisting of the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Goldman Sachs.  As to where it goes from here, I ain't got the vaguest!

Hope you had a most joyous New Year.  Your's truly definitely did.

Tomorrow, we'll review the situation in real estate.

Marko's Take


  1. I suspect the substantive devaluation in the dollar is a culprit as well.

  2. DHH:

    It may very well be. However, in most instances, a "strong dollar" policy proves beneficial as it did in the mid-90's. But the decline in the dollar does promote inflation, which IS a contributor!

    Thanks for the comment!



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