Major fortunes are about to be made and lost. As Gold gapped through the $1,250 level this morning, the final hurdle to the imminent hyper-bolic growth phase was crossed.
Many investors find it psychologically intimidating to purchase an asset making all-time highs, but history is full of examples of huge wealth creation from doing exactly that. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) crossed the seemingly insurmountable 1,000 barrier in 1982, it was met with widespread disbelief. Yet, that proved to be one of the greatest buying opportunities ever for stocks. Oops!
The primary reason for this stumbling block is that investors are told to "buy low" and "sell high". Kinda hard to do when an asset has never been higher. Of course, following that logic, one would have missed every single bull market in history. Oops!
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned about "irrational exuberance" in 1996 with the Dow at about 6,500 and Nasdaq at 1,000. A few short years later, the Dow doubled and the Nasdaq rose 5-fold! Despite issuing that warning, Mr. Greenspan embarked on reckless monetary policy which led to the twin bubbles of tech stocks and real estate. Oops!
You can expect a drumbeat of "experts" telling you that Gold is in a bubble, that the fundamentals don't warrant higher prices and the regurgitation of that idiotic argument that the yellow metal has no intrinsic value. But, instead of hating the nay-sayers, like Kitco's Jon Nadler, we should stop and tip our hats to them. Their mindless drivel serves to keep sentiment from getting too bullish too quickly and, in so doing, adds life to the market. Hey Jon, how's that $800 per ounce forecast looking? Oops!
And of course, let's send some thanks to good old Robert Prechter, chief proponent of the completely useless Elliot Wave Theory, for his ongoing prediction of a crash to $400 dollar per ounce, or so. Prechter, as far as I can tell, has made ONE and only one, correct prediction in his entire life. He did warn of the 1987 market crash, which got him major notoriety. He hasn't been right since. Oops!
Bull markets are famous for extending far longer than anyone possibly believes. Who'd have thought that dot coms, with barely any revenues, let alone profits, would ultimately achieve multi-billion dollar market capitalizations only to be followed by a round-trip to zero? Oops!
Let's not forget current FED chairman, Ben Bernanke. Time and time again, he has said that he doesn't understand why Gold is so high given tame inflation. Psst, Ben, markets ANTICIPATE!
Looking forward, here's what every investor needs to know:
1. Prognosticators and technicians will be calling market tops all the way. They will be repeatedly wrong.
2. Gold's role as the "canary in the coal mine" will be talked down by all the financial geniuses of the Obama Administration. They will be repeatedly wrong.
3. Efforts to suppress the price the Gold will be increased in variety of market-interfering ways. They will be repeatedly wrong.
4. "Experts" will increasingly tell us that Gold is in a bubble and that investors are risking the type of wipe-outs that occurred in both real estate and tech stocks. The comparisons to tech stocks are completely invalid, since mining companies are producing record profits. They will be repeatedly wrong.
We have long maintained the posture that Gold is heading for $2,000 an ounce later this year on its way to an ultimate top of $5,000 or so. Investors smart enough, lucky enough or brave enough to place a substantial portion of their assets in either the bullion itself, or in junior precious metals mining stocks, will be in a far better position to ride out the coming financial storm.
It's not too late. In fact, the party is just about to begin.
Marko's Take
Showing posts with label Alan Greenspan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alan Greenspan. Show all posts
Friday, June 18, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
FED Speaketh With Forked Tongue
While declaring its allegiance to transparency, no other institution in modern history has ever said so many things to so many people so many times - yet said absolutely NOTHING!
The famous practioner of "FED-Double-Speak" was none other than the "Maestro" Alan Greenspan. The man had the ability to deliberate on a "yes" or "no" question in 30 minutes without every even giving an answer. Mr. Greenspan was so well-versed at non-answers, that during routine Q and A sessions in the House and Senate, congress-people routinely nodded off.
Lately, various FED spokespeople have begun the process of telegraphing future interest rate policy, which until recently, they have been hesitant to do. But on Monday, one of their chief lieutenants, the man charged with implementing FED policy, offered a pretty clear take on the likely timing of a move up in interest rates. The official, New York FED Markets Group chief Brian Sack, who has no formal role in setting monetary policy, suggested in a speech some sort of rate tightening will occur by late year.
“The current configuration of yields and asset prices incorporates expectations that short-term interest rates will begin to rise around the end of this year,” Sack told a group of economists in Virginia. “The markets seem prepared for the risks toward tighter policy,” he said, adding a “decent-sized term premium” on longer-dated yields suggests low chances of a “sizable upward shift in yields" when that tightening comes.
Sack’s speech also provided a road map for the monetary stimulus unwind. He envisions the FED removing reserves on a temporary basis, then raising rates, while allowing the $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury assets it will have purchased by March to mature. Any active sales will come much later. Importantly, he said the actions will be taken by mid-year, lending additional support to the idea the FED can start easing rates up off 0% by year end.
Some Fed officials, like St. Louis FED President James Bullard, have implied that a rate increase may not come this year or next. On the other hand, New York FED President William Dudley, San Francisco FED President Janet Yellen and Dallas FED President Richard Fisher, have affirmed the need for low rates to be maintained for an extended period.
With so many voices saying different things, what conclusions can we draw?
First of all, any hint that interest rates may rise is premised on the notion that an economic recovery of substance is underway and gathering momentum. It isn't! In fact, the FED's ability to predict economic cycles is laughable at best. As the second-dip of the Double-Dip Depression takes hold, it will absolutely constrain any desire to raise rates.
Second, even IF the FED were to gradually raise interest rates, inflation will accelerate thereby keeping the FED "behind the curve". Undoubtedly, any increase in interest rates is likely to be substantially less than 1%, while it is virtually certain that the rate of inflation will increase MORE than 1% and probably MUCH more! As a result, the "real" interest rate will continue to become more negative and any increase in rates will be completely illusory.
Ultimately, the MARKET and not the FED will set interest rates. At the prevailing absurdly low interest rate structure, the only buyers of substance, such as Japan and China, have curtailed purchases.
The FED's utter mismanagement of monetary policy, coupled with its propensity to create asset bubble upon asset bubble, has put it and the U.S. Economy in a most unfortunate situation.
Marko's Take
For more background on the FED, how it works and what its mission is, click here (http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/JiGA8XeZbUo).
The famous practioner of "FED-Double-Speak" was none other than the "Maestro" Alan Greenspan. The man had the ability to deliberate on a "yes" or "no" question in 30 minutes without every even giving an answer. Mr. Greenspan was so well-versed at non-answers, that during routine Q and A sessions in the House and Senate, congress-people routinely nodded off.
Lately, various FED spokespeople have begun the process of telegraphing future interest rate policy, which until recently, they have been hesitant to do. But on Monday, one of their chief lieutenants, the man charged with implementing FED policy, offered a pretty clear take on the likely timing of a move up in interest rates. The official, New York FED Markets Group chief Brian Sack, who has no formal role in setting monetary policy, suggested in a speech some sort of rate tightening will occur by late year.
“The current configuration of yields and asset prices incorporates expectations that short-term interest rates will begin to rise around the end of this year,” Sack told a group of economists in Virginia. “The markets seem prepared for the risks toward tighter policy,” he said, adding a “decent-sized term premium” on longer-dated yields suggests low chances of a “sizable upward shift in yields" when that tightening comes.
Sack’s speech also provided a road map for the monetary stimulus unwind. He envisions the FED removing reserves on a temporary basis, then raising rates, while allowing the $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury assets it will have purchased by March to mature. Any active sales will come much later. Importantly, he said the actions will be taken by mid-year, lending additional support to the idea the FED can start easing rates up off 0% by year end.
Some Fed officials, like St. Louis FED President James Bullard, have implied that a rate increase may not come this year or next. On the other hand, New York FED President William Dudley, San Francisco FED President Janet Yellen and Dallas FED President Richard Fisher, have affirmed the need for low rates to be maintained for an extended period.
With so many voices saying different things, what conclusions can we draw?
First of all, any hint that interest rates may rise is premised on the notion that an economic recovery of substance is underway and gathering momentum. It isn't! In fact, the FED's ability to predict economic cycles is laughable at best. As the second-dip of the Double-Dip Depression takes hold, it will absolutely constrain any desire to raise rates.
Second, even IF the FED were to gradually raise interest rates, inflation will accelerate thereby keeping the FED "behind the curve". Undoubtedly, any increase in interest rates is likely to be substantially less than 1%, while it is virtually certain that the rate of inflation will increase MORE than 1% and probably MUCH more! As a result, the "real" interest rate will continue to become more negative and any increase in rates will be completely illusory.
Ultimately, the MARKET and not the FED will set interest rates. At the prevailing absurdly low interest rate structure, the only buyers of substance, such as Japan and China, have curtailed purchases.
The FED's utter mismanagement of monetary policy, coupled with its propensity to create asset bubble upon asset bubble, has put it and the U.S. Economy in a most unfortunate situation.
Marko's Take
For more background on the FED, how it works and what its mission is, click here (http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/JiGA8XeZbUo).
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Helicopter Ben Survives: The Implications
Reports now show that "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke will indeed survive and be appointed to a second-term.
The derisive term "Helicopter" refers to a statement the FED chairman once made when asked about the options available for preventing a systemic financial collapse. In the statement, Bernanke said that the FED could even go so far as to consider "throwing money out of Helicopters" to get cash into people's hands.
Clearly, the statement was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as no one actually believes that The FED would resort to such an idiotic policy. However, the fact that Mr, Bernanke implied that he would go to extremes to get funds into consumers' hands is quite telling as to his modus operandi.
Bernanke, an academic, fancies himself a student of the "Great Depression" and believes that the lessons learned from the monetary mismanagement THEN can be applied to the situation TODAY to minimize the effects of the ongoing finacial calamity. Unfortunately, Mr. Bernanke is not a student of FED policy and efficacy from 1987 through the present.
His mentor, Alan Greenspan, employed a "low interest rate" policy which fed a series of asset bubbles only to followed by devastating crashes. The first bubble, the dot com boom and bust, popped in 2000 and was followed by an 80% drop in the Nasdaq - wiping out a class of investors, creating a slew of corporate bankrupties and setting the stage for a recession.
Mr. Bernanke should really take a look at his OWN role is this utterly absurd policy as he was highly responsible for bubble number two: the real estate bubble, which along with the derivatives mess led to a virual financial system collapse in 2008. Perhaps someone can buy him a book on recent Federal Reserve history!
In any event, it is HIGHLY unlikely that "Helicopter Ben" will make the connection between below-market interest rates and the subsequent mis-allocation of resources which leads to the bubbles in the first place.
Thank God Bernanke isn't a dentist. If he was one, he'd fill one cavity, only to "accidentally" cause two new cavities. "What, me worry?"
The FED and Mr. Bernanke are no more the solutions to what ails us, than a tanker full of gasoline would be in putting out a raging inferno!
Now, the stage is re-set for a continued and misguided policy of below-market interest rates which will lead to hyper-inflation and be followed by the inevitalbe second dip into Depression.
My trading recommendations made from last Sunday's blog remain unchanged. While much of it was premised on the possible replacement of Benanke with a Paul Volcker disciple, not all of it was. A good portion of my concern had to do with factors such as the conditions of the charts, historical precedent, 4th quarter earnings reports and many other factors too numerous to give each justice.
So, for now, stay with the program. I'll be watching daily and will alert you as to whether a mid-course correction needs to be considered.
If you're a Bernanke fan and wish to take exception, TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
The derisive term "Helicopter" refers to a statement the FED chairman once made when asked about the options available for preventing a systemic financial collapse. In the statement, Bernanke said that the FED could even go so far as to consider "throwing money out of Helicopters" to get cash into people's hands.
Clearly, the statement was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as no one actually believes that The FED would resort to such an idiotic policy. However, the fact that Mr, Bernanke implied that he would go to extremes to get funds into consumers' hands is quite telling as to his modus operandi.
Bernanke, an academic, fancies himself a student of the "Great Depression" and believes that the lessons learned from the monetary mismanagement THEN can be applied to the situation TODAY to minimize the effects of the ongoing finacial calamity. Unfortunately, Mr. Bernanke is not a student of FED policy and efficacy from 1987 through the present.
His mentor, Alan Greenspan, employed a "low interest rate" policy which fed a series of asset bubbles only to followed by devastating crashes. The first bubble, the dot com boom and bust, popped in 2000 and was followed by an 80% drop in the Nasdaq - wiping out a class of investors, creating a slew of corporate bankrupties and setting the stage for a recession.
Mr. Bernanke should really take a look at his OWN role is this utterly absurd policy as he was highly responsible for bubble number two: the real estate bubble, which along with the derivatives mess led to a virual financial system collapse in 2008. Perhaps someone can buy him a book on recent Federal Reserve history!
In any event, it is HIGHLY unlikely that "Helicopter Ben" will make the connection between below-market interest rates and the subsequent mis-allocation of resources which leads to the bubbles in the first place.
Thank God Bernanke isn't a dentist. If he was one, he'd fill one cavity, only to "accidentally" cause two new cavities. "What, me worry?"
The FED and Mr. Bernanke are no more the solutions to what ails us, than a tanker full of gasoline would be in putting out a raging inferno!
Now, the stage is re-set for a continued and misguided policy of below-market interest rates which will lead to hyper-inflation and be followed by the inevitalbe second dip into Depression.
My trading recommendations made from last Sunday's blog remain unchanged. While much of it was premised on the possible replacement of Benanke with a Paul Volcker disciple, not all of it was. A good portion of my concern had to do with factors such as the conditions of the charts, historical precedent, 4th quarter earnings reports and many other factors too numerous to give each justice.
So, for now, stay with the program. I'll be watching daily and will alert you as to whether a mid-course correction needs to be considered.
If you're a Bernanke fan and wish to take exception, TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Obama's Big Swerve
Before we go into trading strategies, which I'll cover tomorrow, let's set the stage for the reasons as to why the sudden shift in tactics I urgently clammored for on Friday.
On Thursday, President Obama did something I would have thought previously unthinkable: he took on the Wall Street Boys Club! The President called for sweeping reforms by preventing "banks", such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase, Bank of America and Citicorp from running their own proprietary trading desks, sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds. This is big. The "banks" won't be able to make any money unless they do what banks are supposed to do... LEND!
In addition, the President further surprised this pundit by distancing himself from Time's Man of the Year and current head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. Standing behind Obama was none other than the looming presence of Paul Volcker, who I maintain is THE BEST FED CHAIRMAN OF ALL TIME!
The significance of Volcker is NOT that he will replace Bernanke when his term expires. Rather, it is Volcker"s presence ALONE which indicates that he will have significant input into the next FED chairman and the policies it employs now believed to be Vice Chairman Don Kohn.
Regardless of President Obama's motivations for these two moves, Marko's Take is KUDOS!
Now, let's go back a bit in history as to make it clear why Volcker's presence is such a critical piece of information. Volcker was first appointed to the FED chair in 1979 by Jimmy Carter and continued for two terms into 1987, when he was replaced by Mr. Asset Bubble Sr., Alan Greenspan, aka the "Maestro".
Volcker gave the economy some tough medicine, which successors Greenspan and Bernanke were loathe to do. Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983. The federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, was raised by Volcker to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in '81 as well!
Needless to say, the stock market did NOT react well then and I expect it won't now. The Dow finally bottomed in 1982 before embarking on 20+ years of incredible wealth creation. Even more revealing is that once Volcker's measures began to take root, the Gold market was in its final mania phase. Gold topped in 1980 at $850 and went into a 20 year coma.
Therefore, as you may be gathering, we now have a game changer. I learned the hard way, while managing my own series of hedge funds, that getting wedded to a particular outlook is DANGEROUS. When one fails to acknowledge the significance of these sorts of events, one risks letting a cavity turn into a root canal.
The BEST loss is an early and QUICK loss. That way one can re-group, digest the information and proceed accordingly.
It is now believed that Bernanke's tenure is so tenuous that he may not even last until the next planned FED meeting next week, to be replaced by Kohn on an interim basis. Kohn's track record and views are not well known. However, if they are intended to reflect Volcker's desires, then frankly they don't matter.
Democrats on Friday could not wait to distance themselves from Bernanke. Defections included Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold.
I don't know about you, but right now I feel pretty audacious! I have HOPE and you should, too, although the medicine will require a painful adjustment process. But without it, there was no doubt that we were cascading down a path for which there might become a point of no return.
Tomorrow, we'll discuss how to play "Obama's Big Swerve" in both the Stock and Gold Markets.
Disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
On Thursday, President Obama did something I would have thought previously unthinkable: he took on the Wall Street Boys Club! The President called for sweeping reforms by preventing "banks", such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase, Bank of America and Citicorp from running their own proprietary trading desks, sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds. This is big. The "banks" won't be able to make any money unless they do what banks are supposed to do... LEND!
In addition, the President further surprised this pundit by distancing himself from Time's Man of the Year and current head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. Standing behind Obama was none other than the looming presence of Paul Volcker, who I maintain is THE BEST FED CHAIRMAN OF ALL TIME!
The significance of Volcker is NOT that he will replace Bernanke when his term expires. Rather, it is Volcker"s presence ALONE which indicates that he will have significant input into the next FED chairman and the policies it employs now believed to be Vice Chairman Don Kohn.
Regardless of President Obama's motivations for these two moves, Marko's Take is KUDOS!
Now, let's go back a bit in history as to make it clear why Volcker's presence is such a critical piece of information. Volcker was first appointed to the FED chair in 1979 by Jimmy Carter and continued for two terms into 1987, when he was replaced by Mr. Asset Bubble Sr., Alan Greenspan, aka the "Maestro".
Volcker gave the economy some tough medicine, which successors Greenspan and Bernanke were loathe to do. Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983. The federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, was raised by Volcker to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in '81 as well!
Needless to say, the stock market did NOT react well then and I expect it won't now. The Dow finally bottomed in 1982 before embarking on 20+ years of incredible wealth creation. Even more revealing is that once Volcker's measures began to take root, the Gold market was in its final mania phase. Gold topped in 1980 at $850 and went into a 20 year coma.
Therefore, as you may be gathering, we now have a game changer. I learned the hard way, while managing my own series of hedge funds, that getting wedded to a particular outlook is DANGEROUS. When one fails to acknowledge the significance of these sorts of events, one risks letting a cavity turn into a root canal.
The BEST loss is an early and QUICK loss. That way one can re-group, digest the information and proceed accordingly.
It is now believed that Bernanke's tenure is so tenuous that he may not even last until the next planned FED meeting next week, to be replaced by Kohn on an interim basis. Kohn's track record and views are not well known. However, if they are intended to reflect Volcker's desires, then frankly they don't matter.
Democrats on Friday could not wait to distance themselves from Bernanke. Defections included Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold.
I don't know about you, but right now I feel pretty audacious! I have HOPE and you should, too, although the medicine will require a painful adjustment process. But without it, there was no doubt that we were cascading down a path for which there might become a point of no return.
Tomorrow, we'll discuss how to play "Obama's Big Swerve" in both the Stock and Gold Markets.
Disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
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