Showing posts with label Ben Bernanke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Bernanke. Show all posts

Friday, June 18, 2010

Gold Begins Historic March To $2000

Major fortunes are about to be made and lost.  As Gold gapped through the $1,250 level this morning, the final hurdle to the imminent hyper-bolic growth phase was crossed. 

Many investors find it psychologically intimidating to purchase an asset making all-time highs, but history is full of examples of huge wealth creation from doing exactly that.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) crossed the seemingly insurmountable 1,000 barrier in 1982, it was met with widespread disbelief.  Yet, that proved to be one of the greatest buying opportunities ever for stocks.  Oops!

The primary reason for this stumbling block is that investors are told to "buy low" and "sell high".  Kinda hard to do when an asset has never been higher.  Of course, following that logic, one would have missed every single bull market in history.  Oops!

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned about "irrational exuberance" in 1996 with the Dow at about 6,500 and Nasdaq at 1,000.  A few short years later, the Dow doubled and the Nasdaq rose 5-fold!  Despite issuing that warning, Mr. Greenspan embarked on reckless monetary policy which led to the twin bubbles of tech stocks and real estate.  Oops!

You can expect a drumbeat of "experts" telling you that Gold is in a bubble, that the fundamentals don't warrant higher prices and the regurgitation of that idiotic argument that the yellow metal has no intrinsic value.  But, instead of hating the nay-sayers, like Kitco's Jon Nadler, we should stop and tip our hats to them.  Their mindless drivel serves to keep sentiment from getting too bullish too quickly and, in so doing, adds life to the market.  Hey Jon, how's that $800 per ounce forecast looking?  Oops!

And of course, let's send some thanks to good old Robert Prechter, chief proponent of the completely useless Elliot Wave Theory, for his ongoing prediction of a crash to $400 dollar per ounce, or so.  Prechter, as far as I can tell, has made ONE and only one, correct prediction in his entire life.  He did warn of the 1987 market crash, which got him major notoriety.  He hasn't been right since.  Oops!

Bull markets are famous for extending far longer than anyone possibly believes.  Who'd have thought that dot coms, with barely any revenues, let alone profits, would ultimately achieve multi-billion dollar market capitalizations only to be followed by a round-trip to zero?  Oops!

Let's not forget current FED chairman, Ben Bernanke.  Time and time again, he has said that he doesn't understand why Gold is so high given tame inflation.  Psst, Ben, markets ANTICIPATE!

Looking forward, here's what every investor needs to know:

1.  Prognosticators and technicians will be calling market tops all the way.  They will be repeatedly wrong. 
2.  Gold's role as the "canary in the coal mine" will be talked down by all the financial geniuses of the Obama Administration.  They will be repeatedly wrong.
3.  Efforts to suppress the price the Gold will be increased in variety of market-interfering ways.  They will be repeatedly wrong.
4.  "Experts" will increasingly tell us that Gold is in a bubble and that investors are risking the type of wipe-outs that occurred in both real estate and tech stocks. The comparisons to tech stocks are completely invalid, since mining companies are producing record profits.  They will be repeatedly wrong.

We have long maintained the posture that Gold is heading for $2,000 an ounce later this year on its way to an ultimate top of $5,000 or so.  Investors smart enough, lucky enough or brave enough to place a substantial portion of their assets in either the bullion itself, or in junior precious metals mining stocks, will be in a far better position to ride out the coming financial storm.

It's not too late.  In fact, the party is just about to begin.

Marko's Take

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Plunging Money Supply Has Ominous Implications

The lifeblood of the world financial system is money.  When there's more of it sloshing around, times are typically good unless there TOO much of it, causing inflation.  Econometric studies have shown that of the 10 components of the Index Of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), 2 are the most predictive of future economic activity:  growth in the Money Supply and changes in the Stock Market.

It can be argued, quite convincingly, that the Stock Market is itself is highly dependent on growth in money.  In fact, it's possible, that ALL 10 components of the LEI are driven by growth in money. 

The money supply is SCREAMING!  Is anyone out there listening?

The broadest measure of money, called M3, is contracting at an accelerating rate that now rivals the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal orgy in history.

The M3 figures - which include a broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer.  The pace has since quickened.

The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6%.  The assets of insitutional money market funds fell at a 37% rate, the sharpest drop ever.  While a rising money supply does not always translate into boom times, a FALLING M3 has historically ALWAYS been followed by an economic contraction and a falling stock market.

Record stimulus spending has been an utter failure in triggering job growth and has barely produced any economic recovery.  First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised lower to 3% from 3.2% this morning.  The economy has lost more than 8 million jobs since the downturn began.

The Obama Administratio has an entirely different explanation for the failure of stimulus measures to produce the hoped for results.  They are opting instead for further doses of Keynesian spending, despite warnings from the IMF that the gross public debt of the US will reach 97% of GDP next year and 110% by 2015.

Larry Summers, President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser, has asked Congress to approve another  $200 billion stimulus package to produce economic growth.

Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke no longer pays attention to the M3 data.  The bank stopped publishing the data five years ago, considering it too erratic to be of much value.

Mr. Bernanke has conveniently forgotten that double-digit growth of M3 during the US housing bubble gave clear warnings that the boom was out of control.  The sudden slowdown in M3 in early to mid-2008 - just as the Fed talked of raising rates - gave a very clear warning that the economy and stock markets were about to go into freefall.

The White House appears to have reversed course just weeks after Mr Obama vowed to rein in a budget deficit of $1.5 trillion (9.4% of GDP) this year and set up a commission to target cuts.  Mr. Obama, clearly a reader of "Marko's Take", has now understood that the second dip of this Double-Dip Hyperinflationary Depression is imminent.

The dominant voices in US policy-making, Nobel laureates Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz, as well as Mr Summers and Fed chair Ben Bernanke are all Keynesians who reject monetary theory and have an extreme distaste to any mention of the quantity of money.  Once they read "Marko's Take", perhaps they ought to open up their copies of "The Monetary History of the United States" by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz.

The die is cast.  The crash in M3 has ominous implications.  It means the second dip is imminent,  the stock market will have trouble and on the plus side, interest rates will NOT rise for a long time.

Marko's Take

Interested in ideas on how to fix Social Security?  "Social In-Security:  The Solution"  will be posted in the next 24-48 hours.  To familiarize yourself with the ponzi scheme called Social Security, please check out our video entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem" by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Markets Trading Strategy Update: What To Do Now

Nothing!  For the moment, the case I laid out is playing out very close to the scenario I've forseen with a couple of exceptions.

Gold is trading this morning at BELOW $1080.  My hunch is that it will visit the vicinity of $1000, so I continue to recommend that investors stay as light as possible in this sector.  I believe we are a few weeks away before a decent buying zone, so, for the moment, stay put.  In fact, once gold miners DO fully reflect a lower Gold price, there will come a time to back up the truck, load up on selected junior mining shares and watch the fireworks unfold.

The re-nomination of Ben Bernanke, in my opinion is all the evidence we need that 2010 will turn out to be one helluva great year for Gold investors.  Stay patient.

Another certainty with "Helicopter Ben's " re-appointment, is that interest rates will remain low, stupidly low.
Yesterday, Congress approved an increase in the National Debt ceiling to more than $14 TRILLION!  This means that a 1% increase in interest rates across the board will increase the budget deficit by $140 Billion per year!  Yup, more low rates and ANOTHER Bubble!

But, this can't go into effect until Mr. Obama recovers from his injury sustained during his "State Of the Union Address" in which he patted himself on the back so many times that the rumor is he dislocated his shoulder and is unable to sign new legislation (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/01/obamas-state-of-onion-address-more-you.html).

As far as the overall market goes, I continue to maintain that it is in territory that is both rarified and subject to great risk.  It reminds me of Wile E. Coyote, after having stepped off the cliff, hovering in mid-air before he realizes that it's a long way down. 

What makes me so suspicious about the stock market is the fact that even decent earnings have been met with a yawn.  This tells me that the "good news" is fully factored in.  Currently, the market is merely digesting the sudden plunge of last week - a process I expect to be very short lived.  I, therefore, re-iterate, the trading postures I recommended last week (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/01/preparing-for-coming-waterfall.html).

Fortunately, as the result of this week's lull, it isn't too late to get prepared, and even take advantage of the misery set to befall stock market investors.

I'll make today's blog a short one.  Hope you have a great weekend!

Disagree?  TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Helicopter Ben Survives: The Implications

Reports now show that "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke will indeed survive and be appointed to a second-term.
The derisive term "Helicopter" refers to a statement the FED chairman once made when asked about the options available for preventing a systemic financial collapse.  In the statement, Bernanke said that the FED could even go so far as to consider "throwing money out of Helicopters" to get cash into people's hands.

Clearly, the statement was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as no one actually believes that The FED would resort to such an idiotic policy.  However, the fact that Mr, Bernanke implied that he would go to extremes to get funds into consumers' hands is quite telling as to his modus operandi.

Bernanke, an academic, fancies himself a student of the "Great Depression" and believes that the lessons learned from the monetary mismanagement THEN can be applied to the situation TODAY to minimize the effects of the ongoing finacial calamity.  Unfortunately, Mr. Bernanke is not a student of FED policy and efficacy from 1987 through the present.

His mentor, Alan Greenspan, employed a "low interest rate" policy which fed a series of asset bubbles only to followed by devastating crashes.  The first bubble, the dot com boom and bust, popped in 2000 and was followed by an 80% drop in the Nasdaq -  wiping out a class of investors, creating a slew of corporate bankrupties and setting the stage for a recession.

Mr. Bernanke should really take a look at his OWN role is this utterly absurd policy as he was highly responsible for bubble number two:  the real estate bubble, which along with the derivatives mess led to a virual financial system collapse in 2008.  Perhaps someone can buy him a book on recent Federal Reserve history!

In any event, it is HIGHLY unlikely that "Helicopter Ben" will make the connection between below-market interest rates and the subsequent mis-allocation of resources which leads to the bubbles in the first place.

Thank God Bernanke isn't a dentist.  If he was one, he'd fill one cavity, only to "accidentally" cause two new cavities.  "What, me worry?"

The FED and Mr. Bernanke are no more the solutions to what ails us, than a tanker full of gasoline would be in putting out a raging inferno!

Now, the stage is re-set for a continued and misguided policy of below-market interest rates which will lead to hyper-inflation and be followed by the inevitalbe second dip into Depression.

My trading recommendations made from last Sunday's blog remain unchanged.  While much of it was premised on the possible replacement of Benanke with a Paul Volcker disciple, not all of it was.  A good portion of my concern had to do with factors such as the conditions of the charts, historical precedent, 4th quarter earnings reports and many other factors too numerous to give each justice.

So, for now, stay with the program.  I'll be watching daily and will alert you as to whether a mid-course correction needs to be considered.

If you're a Bernanke fan and wish to take exception, TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Obama's Big Swerve

Before we go into trading strategies, which I'll cover tomorrow, let's set the stage for the reasons as to why the sudden shift in tactics I urgently clammored for on Friday.

On Thursday, President Obama did something I would have thought previously unthinkable:  he took on the Wall Street Boys Club!  The President called for sweeping reforms by preventing "banks", such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase, Bank of America and Citicorp from  running their own proprietary trading desks, sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds.  This is big.  The "banks" won't be able to make any money unless they do what banks are supposed to do... LEND!

In addition, the President further surprised this pundit by distancing himself from Time's Man of the Year and current head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke.  Standing behind Obama was none other than the looming presence of Paul Volcker, who I maintain is THE BEST FED CHAIRMAN OF ALL TIME!

The significance of Volcker is NOT that he will replace Bernanke when his term expires.  Rather, it is Volcker"s presence ALONE which indicates that he will have significant input into the next FED chairman and the policies it employs now believed to be Vice Chairman Don Kohn.

Regardless of President Obama's motivations for these two moves, Marko's Take is KUDOS!

Now, let's go back a bit in history as to make it clear why Volcker's presence is such a critical piece of information.  Volcker was first appointed to the FED chair in 1979 by Jimmy Carter and continued for two terms into 1987, when he was replaced by Mr. Asset Bubble Sr., Alan Greenspan, aka the "Maestro".

Volcker gave the economy some tough medicine, which successors Greenspan and Bernanke were loathe to do. Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983.  The federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, was raised by Volcker to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in '81 as well!

Needless to say, the stock market did NOT react well then and I expect it won't now.  The Dow finally bottomed in 1982 before embarking on 20+ years of incredible wealth creation.  Even more revealing is that once Volcker's measures began to take root, the Gold market was in its final mania phase.  Gold topped in 1980 at $850 and went into a 20 year coma.

Therefore, as you may be gathering, we now have a game changer.  I learned the hard way, while managing my own series of hedge funds, that getting wedded to a particular outlook is DANGEROUS.  When one fails to acknowledge the significance of these sorts of events, one risks letting a cavity turn into a root canal.

The BEST loss is an early and QUICK loss.  That way one can re-group, digest the information and proceed accordingly.

It is now believed that Bernanke's tenure is so tenuous that he may not even last until the next planned FED meeting next week, to be replaced by Kohn on an interim basis.  Kohn's track record and views are not well known.  However, if they are intended to reflect Volcker's desires, then frankly they don't matter.

Democrats on Friday could not wait to distance themselves from Bernanke.  Defections included Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold. 

I don't know about you, but right now I feel pretty audacious!  I have HOPE and you should, too, although the medicine will require a painful adjustment process.  But without it, there was no doubt that we were cascading down a path for which there might become a point of no return.

Tomorrow, we'll discuss how to play "Obama's Big Swerve" in both the Stock and Gold Markets. 

Disagree?  TAKE ME ON!

Marko's Take