The elite nations were nicknamed BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The very un-elite nations are referred to as PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). I propose a change to the membership of the elite.
China is in danger of losing its exalted status. Blasphemy? Not at all. The reasons for this have been discussed in these very pages http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/03/non-bull-in-china-shop.html.
While the Chinese economy grew at 10.3% in the second quarter over the year before, this was significantly less than the 11.9% realized in the first quarter. Beijing has undertaken efforts to cool down its economy, which shows signs of inflation and a property bubble. Recent measures enacted include increased required down payments and extreme restrictions on buying additional properties.
Although the slowdown was expected, other recently-released figures indicate that the economy could be cooling more quickly than forecast. Industrial production, which grew by 13.7% in June relative to the prior year, was much lower than May's 16.5% annualized increase.
The World Bank also cites factors such as a declining labor force due to China's demographics and lower increases in total factor productivity as reasons to expect China's growth rate to slow. It expects potential annual growth to be about 8.4% between 2010 and 2015, down from 9.6% from 1995 to 2009. From 2016 to 2020 the rate could fall further to 7% on average. If the property bubble should burst and get ugly, this will undoubtedly reduce growth prospects even more.
India, on the other hand, does NOT have the same demographic issues plaguing China, which has taken steps to limit its birth rate. Long-term growth requires a pyramidal population structure.
India has not been growing as fast as China, but its growth may be more sustainable and healthy. The Indian economy grew by 8.6% last quarter. It is not believed to be in danger of over-heating.
Brazil and Russia are among the very few countries with increasing oil reserves and output, a very critical asset during a time of "Peak Oil" and a growing possibility of military conflict in the Middle East.
Therefore, I'd like to propose that the elite nations now become known as RIB (Russia, India and Brazil).
The Chinese miracle may very well be coming to a pre-mature ending. The Shanghai Composite is looking very unhealthy.
Marko's Take
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
World War III Continued
Inevitably, difficult financial times lead to more militarism. Currently, there are more than 50 military conflicts that are active and some, like the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, are threatening to explode into all-out multi-nation wars.
The continent of Africa has been plagued by no less than 20 civil wars in the last few decades, although these are primarily tribal conflicts which are very localized. The MAJOR conflicts include the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the threatened nuclear showdown in the Middle East over proposed sanctions against Iran and the recent escalation of tension in North Korea. Lesser conflicts, tame for now, include the Chechen and Georgian civil wars which have threatened Russia.
Global military spending has grown sharply at a time when few countries can afford it given the massive budget deficits so many of them face. World military expenditures in 2008 are estimated to have reached $1.464 trillion in current dollars versus just over $1.2 trillion in 2005 adjusted for inflation.
This represents a 4% increase in real terms since 2007 and a 45% increase over the 10-year period since 1999. Put differently, worldwide military spending equates to 2.4% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or $217 for each person in the world.
The U.S., with its massive spending budget, is the principal determinant of the current world trend and its military expenditure now accounts for 41.5% of the world total.
After Washington, the next highest spenders are China (5.8% of world total), France and Britain (4.5% each) and Russia (4.0%). The next 10 countries combined represent about 21.1% of the total with the rest of the planet making up the remaining 18.6%.
The total U.S. military budget of approximately $700 billion, if completely wiped out, would not even cut the budget deficit in half! It represents more than 50% of the entire discretionary portion of the budget. Of that total, about $200 billion is being spent annually in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sadly, rising tensions in two key areas of the world, the Middle East and Korea, suggest that a reduction in military spending is very unlikely in the intermediate term.
Korean tensions have resulted from recent revelations that North Korea is responsible for the sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan in March. Because nuclear power North Korea shares a border with China, Beijing has been restrained about supporting sanctions against Pyongyang. That seems to have changed.
During a visit to Seoul yesterday, China’s premier Wen Jiabao said that China would not protect “whoever sank” the South Korean warship, offering Seoul some encouragement that Beijing might not block moves to punish North Korea at the United Nations Security Council for killing 46 sailors.
South Korea has given China the complete technical report on the sinking and has said it would welcome a Chinese delegation should they want to inspect the shattered hull and corroded torpedo retrieved from the seabed.
North Korea has put its oversized army on alert and has threatened to invade South Korea if Seoul breaches any restricted areas. The last thing China wants is a nuclear civil war on its southern border with millions of Korean refugees seeking asylum.
Russia also has a keen interest in the Korean Peninsula. Moscow said on Thursday that it would stage large-scale naval exercises off North Korea next month that were planned before the stand-off on the peninsula. Sailors “will be on a high level of alert and capable of reacting adequately to any threat”, the Russian Navy told Interfax.
Iran sits on the second largest oil reserves on the planet and is vying to join the nuclear club, a policy vehemently opposed by Israel and the United States as well as the United Nations Security Council. Opposition to Tehran's plans now includes France, China, Russia and Britain - making it virtually certain that sanctions will be imposed. Iran has responded to the possibility of sanctions by threatening military action in the region and cutting off oil exports which need to go through the Straits of Hormuz.
The criticality of maintaining oil flow virtually assures a multi-nation armed conflict and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or Iran with the inevitable rise in global terrorism. It is also likely that any regional conflict would draw in nations such as Syria, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen and Egypt who will oppose any action taken by Israel.
Unfortunately, the militarism witnessed today is only likely to grow worse. As nations become more determined to "look out for number one", the ability to cooperate diplomatically will be less likely. Otherwise, passive domestic populations will become more supportive of military actions to protect their countries economic interests. Defaulting debtor nations will incur the wrath of their creditors. Protective trade restrictions, which were utter failures during the Great Depression, will become more politically popular.
This is yet another reason to maintain a heavy stake in Gold. If free trade becomes restricted, currencies will be less useful as a means of exchange and the use of the only globally recognized currency will increase exponentially.
Marko's Take
Our latest video blog which proposes a 7-Step solution to fixing Social Security will be posted in the next day. If you want to know the important aspects of that fraud and ponzi scheme called Social Security, check out our video entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem' by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI.
The continent of Africa has been plagued by no less than 20 civil wars in the last few decades, although these are primarily tribal conflicts which are very localized. The MAJOR conflicts include the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the threatened nuclear showdown in the Middle East over proposed sanctions against Iran and the recent escalation of tension in North Korea. Lesser conflicts, tame for now, include the Chechen and Georgian civil wars which have threatened Russia.
Global military spending has grown sharply at a time when few countries can afford it given the massive budget deficits so many of them face. World military expenditures in 2008 are estimated to have reached $1.464 trillion in current dollars versus just over $1.2 trillion in 2005 adjusted for inflation.
This represents a 4% increase in real terms since 2007 and a 45% increase over the 10-year period since 1999. Put differently, worldwide military spending equates to 2.4% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or $217 for each person in the world.
The U.S., with its massive spending budget, is the principal determinant of the current world trend and its military expenditure now accounts for 41.5% of the world total.
After Washington, the next highest spenders are China (5.8% of world total), France and Britain (4.5% each) and Russia (4.0%). The next 10 countries combined represent about 21.1% of the total with the rest of the planet making up the remaining 18.6%.
The total U.S. military budget of approximately $700 billion, if completely wiped out, would not even cut the budget deficit in half! It represents more than 50% of the entire discretionary portion of the budget. Of that total, about $200 billion is being spent annually in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sadly, rising tensions in two key areas of the world, the Middle East and Korea, suggest that a reduction in military spending is very unlikely in the intermediate term.
Korean tensions have resulted from recent revelations that North Korea is responsible for the sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan in March. Because nuclear power North Korea shares a border with China, Beijing has been restrained about supporting sanctions against Pyongyang. That seems to have changed.
During a visit to Seoul yesterday, China’s premier Wen Jiabao said that China would not protect “whoever sank” the South Korean warship, offering Seoul some encouragement that Beijing might not block moves to punish North Korea at the United Nations Security Council for killing 46 sailors.
South Korea has given China the complete technical report on the sinking and has said it would welcome a Chinese delegation should they want to inspect the shattered hull and corroded torpedo retrieved from the seabed.
North Korea has put its oversized army on alert and has threatened to invade South Korea if Seoul breaches any restricted areas. The last thing China wants is a nuclear civil war on its southern border with millions of Korean refugees seeking asylum.
Russia also has a keen interest in the Korean Peninsula. Moscow said on Thursday that it would stage large-scale naval exercises off North Korea next month that were planned before the stand-off on the peninsula. Sailors “will be on a high level of alert and capable of reacting adequately to any threat”, the Russian Navy told Interfax.
Iran sits on the second largest oil reserves on the planet and is vying to join the nuclear club, a policy vehemently opposed by Israel and the United States as well as the United Nations Security Council. Opposition to Tehran's plans now includes France, China, Russia and Britain - making it virtually certain that sanctions will be imposed. Iran has responded to the possibility of sanctions by threatening military action in the region and cutting off oil exports which need to go through the Straits of Hormuz.
The criticality of maintaining oil flow virtually assures a multi-nation armed conflict and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or Iran with the inevitable rise in global terrorism. It is also likely that any regional conflict would draw in nations such as Syria, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen and Egypt who will oppose any action taken by Israel.
Unfortunately, the militarism witnessed today is only likely to grow worse. As nations become more determined to "look out for number one", the ability to cooperate diplomatically will be less likely. Otherwise, passive domestic populations will become more supportive of military actions to protect their countries economic interests. Defaulting debtor nations will incur the wrath of their creditors. Protective trade restrictions, which were utter failures during the Great Depression, will become more politically popular.
This is yet another reason to maintain a heavy stake in Gold. If free trade becomes restricted, currencies will be less useful as a means of exchange and the use of the only globally recognized currency will increase exponentially.
Marko's Take
Our latest video blog which proposes a 7-Step solution to fixing Social Security will be posted in the next day. If you want to know the important aspects of that fraud and ponzi scheme called Social Security, check out our video entitled "Social In-Security: The Problem' by clicking here http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv#p/u/0/twFn9XyP2rI.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Iran Sanctions Gain Momentum
The nuclear threat posed by Iran has proved to be nettlesome for the U.S. The world community, given America's tendency toward interventionism, has viewed our hard line towards Iran with suspicion. Especially worrisome has been the fear that the U.S. and/or Isreal would employ some sort of military strike against facilities in Iran, believed to be capable of producing nuclear weapons, which could be used to either strike Israel or threaten Iran's neighbors.
The world community has substantially shifted its stance. With French President Nicolas Sarkovsky at his side, President Barack Obama stated Tuesday, that he hopes to have international sanctions against Iran in place "within weeks," not months, because of its continuing nuclear program. However, the full support of the United Nations is not yet solidified.
For his part, Sarkozy told reporters, "Iran cannot continue its mad race" toward acquiring nuclear weapons.
On the U.N. Security Council, permanent members Russia and China, have previously expressed reservations toward a tougher set of sanctions, as have several of the rotating members who do not have veto powers.
However, recently, both China and Russia have signalled, overtly or covertly, marked shifts in their stances.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton predicted new sanctions would be forthcoming, hinting that skeptical nations, such as China and Russia, would eventually come along. At the conclusion of an international meeting of 8 major powers in Canada, Clinton cited a growing alarm around the world about the consequences of a nuclear Iran.
According to diplomats in other countries, China has recently agreed to begin discussing specific sanctions against Iran, offering the first sign that Beijing may be willing to back a new round of United Nations measures.
Such a shift would be a major breakthrough for the U.S., which views China’s previous reluctance to back sanctions as the biggest obstacle to its intention of ratcheting up the pressure on Iran. Washington believes that if Beijing’s support is obtained, a security resolution would be a done deal.
The diplomats cautioned that difficult negotiations lie ahead over the scope of any sanctions. Washington hopes they would be designed to thwart Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, punish the Revolutionary Guard and increase the country’s financial isolation.
Russia has already signalled its willingness to support sanctions on Iran, although like China, it favors less stringent measures than the U.S. and its allies.
American diplomats added that countries with temporary membership of the Security Council, such as Turkey and Brazil, whose votes are not necessary for passage, but who could help convey a message of international unity, are more likely to be secured if China is brought on board.
Assisting the U.S. in its attempt to pursuade the international community is the defection of a key Iranian nuclear scientist, Shahram Amiri to the United States.
According to the people briefed on the intelligence operation, Amiri's defection was part of a long-planned CIA operation. The CIA reportedly approached the scientist in Iran through an intermediary, who made an offer of resettlement on behalf of the United States.
Using information gathered from Amiri and other sources, the CIA has produced a new report on Iran's nuclear capabilties.
The CIA report is the latest official study expressing concern over Iran's continuing nuclear activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently issued a report warning that continuing nuclear activities in violation of U.N. resolutions raise "concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."
Isolating Iran, without military intervention represents a major international victory for the Obama Administration and lessens the liklihood, in the near-term of unilateal military action, which would be dangerous and de-stabilize the entire Middle East. It would also, in all probability, cause a major disruption to oil supplies and deal a blow to global efforts to continue to engineer an economic recovery.
Marko's Take
We want to wish everyone a wonderful Good Friday and Easter. Please visit our new YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv or our friends, the very excellent LeMetropole http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ or Stock Mavrick http://www.stockmavrick.com/.
The world community has substantially shifted its stance. With French President Nicolas Sarkovsky at his side, President Barack Obama stated Tuesday, that he hopes to have international sanctions against Iran in place "within weeks," not months, because of its continuing nuclear program. However, the full support of the United Nations is not yet solidified.
For his part, Sarkozy told reporters, "Iran cannot continue its mad race" toward acquiring nuclear weapons.
On the U.N. Security Council, permanent members Russia and China, have previously expressed reservations toward a tougher set of sanctions, as have several of the rotating members who do not have veto powers.
However, recently, both China and Russia have signalled, overtly or covertly, marked shifts in their stances.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton predicted new sanctions would be forthcoming, hinting that skeptical nations, such as China and Russia, would eventually come along. At the conclusion of an international meeting of 8 major powers in Canada, Clinton cited a growing alarm around the world about the consequences of a nuclear Iran.
According to diplomats in other countries, China has recently agreed to begin discussing specific sanctions against Iran, offering the first sign that Beijing may be willing to back a new round of United Nations measures.
Such a shift would be a major breakthrough for the U.S., which views China’s previous reluctance to back sanctions as the biggest obstacle to its intention of ratcheting up the pressure on Iran. Washington believes that if Beijing’s support is obtained, a security resolution would be a done deal.
The diplomats cautioned that difficult negotiations lie ahead over the scope of any sanctions. Washington hopes they would be designed to thwart Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, punish the Revolutionary Guard and increase the country’s financial isolation.
Russia has already signalled its willingness to support sanctions on Iran, although like China, it favors less stringent measures than the U.S. and its allies.
American diplomats added that countries with temporary membership of the Security Council, such as Turkey and Brazil, whose votes are not necessary for passage, but who could help convey a message of international unity, are more likely to be secured if China is brought on board.
Assisting the U.S. in its attempt to pursuade the international community is the defection of a key Iranian nuclear scientist, Shahram Amiri to the United States.
According to the people briefed on the intelligence operation, Amiri's defection was part of a long-planned CIA operation. The CIA reportedly approached the scientist in Iran through an intermediary, who made an offer of resettlement on behalf of the United States.
Using information gathered from Amiri and other sources, the CIA has produced a new report on Iran's nuclear capabilties.
The CIA report is the latest official study expressing concern over Iran's continuing nuclear activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently issued a report warning that continuing nuclear activities in violation of U.N. resolutions raise "concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."
Isolating Iran, without military intervention represents a major international victory for the Obama Administration and lessens the liklihood, in the near-term of unilateal military action, which would be dangerous and de-stabilize the entire Middle East. It would also, in all probability, cause a major disruption to oil supplies and deal a blow to global efforts to continue to engineer an economic recovery.
Marko's Take
We want to wish everyone a wonderful Good Friday and Easter. Please visit our new YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/markostaketv or our friends, the very excellent LeMetropole http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ or Stock Mavrick http://www.stockmavrick.com/.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Middle East Reaching A Fever Point!
But then, when ISN'T it?
Recent developments suggest that a major conflict is imminent. I first wrote about an impending war with Iran several weeks ago (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/war-with-iran-imminent.html).
Of course, that hasn't come to fruition... yet! But recent developments suggest that the liklihood of a major military episode has gotten much higher. Russia had formerly been a staunch supporter of Iran and had gone so far as to threaten to intervene if the U.S. got involved. Recently, Russia has suggested that its view of Iran's nuclear program has changed. It now views the emergence of a nuclear Iran as a threat.
According to an article in Times Online, Israel is waging a covert assassination campaign across the Middle East in an effort to stop its key enemies from co-ordinating their activities. Israeli agents have been targeting meetings between members of Hamas, the leadership of the militant Hezbollah group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
They are also suspected of recent killings in Dubai, Damascus and Beirut. While Israel’s Mossad spy agency has been suspected of staging assassinations across the world since the 1970s, it does not officially acknowledge or admit its activities.
The current spate of killings began in December when a “tourist bus” carrying Iranian officials and Hamas members exploded outside Damascus. The official report by Syria claimed that a tire had exploded, but photographs surfaced showing the charred remains of the vehicle — prompting speculation that a much larger explosion had taken place.
Several weeks later a meeting between members of Hamas, which controls Gaza, and their counterparts from Hezbollah, in its southern Beirut stronghold in Lebanon, was attacked, resulting in several deaths. Several international networks have said that Iran is disrupting their Farsi-language satellite transmissions, Israel Radio reported Friday.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran has been blocking GMail since last Thursday. BBC Radio, The Voice of America and the German network Deutsche Welle defined the interference as electronic disturbances from Iran.
Any military strike against Iran would be very risky, even according to internal Isreali sources. While endorsing international efforts to pressure Tehran into curbing sensitive nuclear technologies, Israel has hinted it could resort to force. But some analysts say Israeli jets would be stymied by the distance to Iran and by its defences.
Asked in a television interview about Israeli leaders' vows to "take care" of the perceived threat, ex-general Dan Halutz, who stepped down as armed forces chief in 2007, said: "We are taking upon ourselves a task that is bigger than us" (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61C0CZ.htm).
The United States and European nations are trying to enlist other world powers in stepping up sanctions against Iran for its uranium enrichment, a process with bomb-making potential. Tehran denies having hostile designs, but its anti-Israel rhetoric has stirred war fears. Some analysts believe Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, neither confirms nor denies this capability.
It may be that another military confrontation in the Middle East is inevitable. We hope not. However, if one should occur, the obvious implications are MUCH higher oil prices and MUCH higher Gold prices.
Care to weigh in? Care to disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Related articles: (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/world-war-iii-has-begun.html)
Recent developments suggest that a major conflict is imminent. I first wrote about an impending war with Iran several weeks ago (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2009/12/war-with-iran-imminent.html).
Of course, that hasn't come to fruition... yet! But recent developments suggest that the liklihood of a major military episode has gotten much higher. Russia had formerly been a staunch supporter of Iran and had gone so far as to threaten to intervene if the U.S. got involved. Recently, Russia has suggested that its view of Iran's nuclear program has changed. It now views the emergence of a nuclear Iran as a threat.
According to an article in Times Online, Israel is waging a covert assassination campaign across the Middle East in an effort to stop its key enemies from co-ordinating their activities. Israeli agents have been targeting meetings between members of Hamas, the leadership of the militant Hezbollah group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
They are also suspected of recent killings in Dubai, Damascus and Beirut. While Israel’s Mossad spy agency has been suspected of staging assassinations across the world since the 1970s, it does not officially acknowledge or admit its activities.
The current spate of killings began in December when a “tourist bus” carrying Iranian officials and Hamas members exploded outside Damascus. The official report by Syria claimed that a tire had exploded, but photographs surfaced showing the charred remains of the vehicle — prompting speculation that a much larger explosion had taken place.
Several weeks later a meeting between members of Hamas, which controls Gaza, and their counterparts from Hezbollah, in its southern Beirut stronghold in Lebanon, was attacked, resulting in several deaths. Several international networks have said that Iran is disrupting their Farsi-language satellite transmissions, Israel Radio reported Friday.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran has been blocking GMail since last Thursday. BBC Radio, The Voice of America and the German network Deutsche Welle defined the interference as electronic disturbances from Iran.
Any military strike against Iran would be very risky, even according to internal Isreali sources. While endorsing international efforts to pressure Tehran into curbing sensitive nuclear technologies, Israel has hinted it could resort to force. But some analysts say Israeli jets would be stymied by the distance to Iran and by its defences.
Asked in a television interview about Israeli leaders' vows to "take care" of the perceived threat, ex-general Dan Halutz, who stepped down as armed forces chief in 2007, said: "We are taking upon ourselves a task that is bigger than us" (http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61C0CZ.htm).
The United States and European nations are trying to enlist other world powers in stepping up sanctions against Iran for its uranium enrichment, a process with bomb-making potential. Tehran denies having hostile designs, but its anti-Israel rhetoric has stirred war fears. Some analysts believe Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, neither confirms nor denies this capability.
It may be that another military confrontation in the Middle East is inevitable. We hope not. However, if one should occur, the obvious implications are MUCH higher oil prices and MUCH higher Gold prices.
Care to weigh in? Care to disagree? TAKE ME ON!
Marko's Take
Related articles: (http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/02/world-war-iii-has-begun.html)
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